Exactly.
Most of us who are bemoaning the loss of this or that benefit (I'm in the 1.6x and Admirals Club moaners' camp) are comparing what we will get starting a year from now with what we have been getting.
You, not unreasonably, are comparing what you will be getting with what the card costs.
Three provisos:
- You will have to have >$250 air charges in each year. You can't buy a $500 ticket in 2016 and collect a second $250 on it in 2017.
- The dating of a year depends on your last 2016 statement date. Say it is the 5th of the month. Then whatever you plan to get reimbursed on in 2016 must POST (not be charged, in the process of ticketing, pending, etc.) on or prior to 5 December 2016. Something that posted 10 December 2016 would count against your 2017 purchases.
- This trick only works the first year. Next July or whenever, if you pay the $450, you can only offset $250 in 2018. With the disappearance of some of the benefits, you will have to decide if Priority Pass for multiple folks, the 4th night free benefit, and 1.2 cents a TYP when applied to airfare will be worth the $200 net.