Originally Posted by
brabb12
do you think they would upgrade DFW to NRT to a 77W? If they are awarded a HND slot?
IMO, no. DFW-NRT isn't as premium-heavy a route as is LAX-HND. If AA is awarded DFW-HND, the AA/JL alliance will no longer need three daily DFW-NRT flights, and I expect that one daily with a craptacular 260-289 seat 772 will be plenty on the AA side.
NH currently flies LAX-HND with a 4-class, 250 seat 77W with 8F, 52J, 24W/PE and 166Y. And that's with overnight flight times.
AA is incredibly proud of its 91% load factor on LAX-HND during its first two months, but that's evidence that it's using a too-small (and too premium-lite) airplane. AA has but 28 inferior J seats while NH has 60 premium seats on the same route.
As far as I know, NH does not have an AA-like generosity in the upgrade department, so either NH is selling a lot of premium seats on LAX-HND or it's losing its shirt. For the past year, NH has a load factor over 80% on its LAX-HND flight.
Originally Posted by
Longboater
Personally, I think if they receive DFW-HND, an upgauge to a 77W is definitely a possibility with the othe DFW-NRT flight becoming a Dreamliner flight. AA is switching one DFW-NRT flight to a 289 seat reconfigured 772, leaving one flight selling F. Maybe I'm overestimating the yield potential of flying into HND and the Japanese market is no longer viable for AA to be offering F, letting JAL pick up the tab.
I don't see DFW-NRT needing a 77W, given that DFW-NRT features just 42 O&D PDEW. A 772 to HND, a 772 to NRT and the JL 787 should be plenty of capacity.
Originally Posted by
Longboater
AA is planning on 787-8 for daytime LAX-HND and a 260 seat 772 for DFW-HND. When the 77W was first announced, it was announced NRT, HKG, LHR, and GRU would see these aircraft. However, that was before the decline of the Yen. But Japan's economic condition is leaps and bounds ahead of what Brazil is going through right now. Personally, if I was one of AA's lawyers lobbying for the two daytime HND slots, I would have advised applying for both utilising 77Ws due to their premium nature. But, as we've seen, aircraft in the applications does not translate to aircraft actually being operated on the route. Long term, I don't see a 787-8 on LAX-HND or a 260 seat 772 on DFW-HND, rather a mix of 787-9/A350-900 and possibly 77Ws if the yields are sufficient, which again I may be overestimating.
NH currently flies more than twice as many premium seats each day between LAX and HND. AA's Pacific yields and unit revenues are in the toilet, perhaps because it's not selling as many premium tickets.
28 premium seats might be sufficient on a CLT-Europe A333, but it's clearly insufficient on LAX-HND.
Originally Posted by
Longboater
I'd be shocked if AA added a NGO flight. If JAL is to restart NGO-Mainland US service, it'll be LAX-NGO. It's a testament to the local market of DTW that DL is able to support a NGO flight alone without connections on the NGO end.
With Toyota moving 3,000+ white collar jobs from Torrance to Plano, and another 1,000+ jobs from NY and KY to Plano, the time may be right for DFW-NGO. Easy connections to SAT, large corporate base at DFW, and a gigantic hub to help fill the plane with connections from another 150+ cities.