Originally Posted by
VegasGambler
$450k VP coin-in over 8 days (with min $50k per day) will get you there (45k TC + 80k multiplier + 25k bonus = 150k = 7*). I have no idea what their theo is on good VP but let's assume that it's 1% (if it's different just scale accordingly). So the 8-day plan would get you an ADT of $563 and it would cost you $2074 in EV.
On the other hand you could do it by playing $950k over 3 days. That would get you 95k TC + 30k multiplier + 25k bonus = 150k = 7*. Your ADT would be $3167 but your total EV cost would be $4370.
It seems pretty clear to me that reaching 7* is worth the $2070. The question is, is raising your ADT from $563 to $3167 worth another $2300? I would guess that is probably is, but I'm not sure exactly how their offers work.
Your bankroll requirements are going to have to be huge to deal with variance. Even low variance games. $450K/$950K coin-in are pretty serious figures. Things also get very risky once you are entering into $5+ denomination VP. Not to mention the theo for a lot of the best games is very low. Off the top of my head, you are talking about sessions where you could be down in the $5-10K range. Far beyond the mathematical long-term EV. Only less risky play would be to do it at very low denominations. But, then you would probably have lousier games as well as extreme limitations on how much coin-in you could do per hour.
Originally Posted by
VegasGambler
I understand that. I just wonder what the offers are going to look like if I hit 7* with an ADT in the $500 range. That seems low to me.
In the Vegas market, I believe the offers would not be that great. Unless, you put a huge value on rooms. Especially for low theo VP plays. Haven't tested this or even discussed it for quite a while. Though, CZR has traditionally been much more generous to new/dormant players. Just hard to know in advance.