Originally Posted by
christianj
Your essentially then valuing your points at a rate equal to what the upgraded room costs even though you have no idea if you would get the upgrade when you booked the award reservation.
Actually as a LTP I have over 10 year of experience at this and have a VERY good idea of whether I'll get an upgrade. Plus if you read the master thread on the property you can see how they upgrade. Lastly you can look online a day or two before the stay you can see how many suites are available.
However if you want to play it safe, even without the upgrade I'm getting 4.5 cents per point at that hotel.