Originally Posted by
eternaltransit
I agree with you on all points here (although the Gulf airlines do try their best to parachute in foreign talent, to varying degrees of success at upper management levels) and indeed did mention in that post the staff issues are best discussed in another thread as it isn't really directly relevant to the operational profitability of EK - although I think that the Gulf airlines problems (or at least EK more than EY and QR) are going to be more of a political and public relations issue rather than a serious threat to their business model considering that Americas revenue and I would say margin is quite small: all it does is constraint future growth, unless EU regulators take action.
What I anticipate will happen is that the USA gov't will determine that the Gulf airlines are competing unfairly and impose limitations on their flights. The most likely outcome is a freeze on new USA service, although more draconian steps are certainly possible. Of the ME3, only Emirates seems to have even a plausible case for being a "real" airline, and by the nature of their actions -- most notably their preposterous USA business strategy -- I doubt much distinction will be made between the three.
I then expect this ruling to embolden regulators in other parts of the world -- especially but not exclusively in Europe -- to impose similar restrictions on ME3 flights. Due to geography, many of these countries have much more "at stake" in regulating the ME3, and most of these countries are far more protectionist than the USA.
I'll be surprised but not shocked if "safety" becomes a major component of this campaign. While we can't rule out the possibility of over-stretched resources, I don't see how it's in the interest of the ME3 to take shortcuts on safety. That's no way to build a business, subsidized or unsubsidized.