Originally Posted by
cbn42
WN only took the O&D market share from AA at SJC. They did not establish a hub there to take any of the connecting traffic.
WN doesn't have hubs per se, and they aren't serving the sort of smaller cities AA serves with Envoy, but actually they will show you midcon connections in STL as well as MDW/DEN.
O/D traffic in places like CLT, STL, PHX and PHL is nothing to sneeze at. Well, unless you're an airline that AA was in the 00's, a complete dinosaur, flying fuel hog planes and having huge labor problems. I thought the point of this merger was to have a competitive airline. If DL can hub at MSP and DTW, and fight with AS at SEA, why can't AA hub at PHL and CLT, and tussle with WN in PHX? That's not to say that the PMUS hubs will do the same things in post-merger AA 3-5 years from now, but IMO all three cities are in much better shape than places like CVG, CLE or MEM; larger metro area that support good O/D, some obvious possibilities (reliever hubs for NYC/LAX/MIA, SE/NE United States connectivity, Mexico connectivity).
If AA pulls out of any more hubs, WN may step in with more service for the local population, but they aren't going to keep the connecting passengers coming there. Actually, given how much WN's economics have changed in the last few years, I don't think they would even do that anymore. Perhaps F9 or NK will.
Perhaps? What, you think people living in or flying to PHL, CLT or PHX are going to use TUS, RDU or EWR and drive 100-150 miles to fly out of a far less convenient airport? There's obvious demand in those markets. Some airline is going to have enough brain cells to realize they can make money catering to that demand.
If WN doesn't step up and take it, yeah, sure, F9 or NK could, but giving a discount airline unfettered room for growth in metro areas like PHL (6th largest metro area in the US), PHX (12th), CLT (23rd), while duking it out with UA and DL over LAX/NYC, markets they will
never own? Ouch.