To answer one of your questions, status is still ahead of fare class in the priority for upgrade rankings with the exception of Y fares. There really might be that many DM/PMs ahead of you particularly since you have the one of the lowest fare classes. Also, only the people checked in show up on the list. Maybe all the highest status people are amped up about the flight and checked in early while GMs and FOs are disproportionally checking in later.