Originally Posted by
incognitoMD
Personally though, I would rather see it operated by AA, as its footprint in Asia is a bit lacking, and it would be a great route to utilize systemwide upgrades.
I think this is precisely whey AA can't start the route. Also why they can't start DFW/LAX -SYD/AKL. Probably also what helped to kill ORD-DEL.
When one route stands out as longer than all others by a good amount, everyone is going to save their SWU's for it. With the new 1-2-1 J configuration (and 3-4-3 econ) each J seat is taking up the space of ~6 Y seats. So if the flight is ultra-long-haul (high fuel costs), and 50% of the J cabin is free upgrades on deeply discounted Y tickets, it will be VERY hard for AA to make money on the flight.
If AA starts DFW-HKG the J cabin is going to be full of pax connecting from lax/jfk/ord just so they can use a SWU. And if their upgrades don't clear they'll ..... and moan (and possibly be stuck in 3-4-3) and possibly decide to switch to UA/DL.