Originally Posted by
sprials
DOJ has dug themselves into this mess and it looks like AA and US will be screwed by it. It's kind of funny US was actually screwed twice, once when they tried to merge with UA (too early!) and again now. By allowing the previous 2 (3...if you count WN) mergers they have placed AA/US in a position where they need to merge to effectively compete. And you have to look into the future one/both airlines have to exceed to growth of DL/UA if they want to grow and that seems even less likely.
I haven't read the suit itself but all the media coverage I've seen talks about bag fees, domestic flights. I see AA/US could get along ok as domestic airlines fighting it out with AS/WN and lagging far behind the big 2. But internationally the picture is way worse than DL/UA. At existing routes even a post-merger AA is way behind UA/DL.
You really SHOULD read the suit. In it, you'll find that executives at both companies are quoted as saying they are certain each airline could profit as a standalone. They do not need to combine and become bigger than the other 3 to make it.
If anything, AA has a post BK plan as a standalone that will make it even larger than it is now. If you look at passenger volume, AA is currently about the size of combined UA/CO. With its post BK plan, it could actually become larger than UA/CO
as a standalone company.