Originally Posted by
355F1
Of course it's all a simple guessing game...
But what how many members percentage-wise do you think are going to be removed from their current Level...???
For instance....let's say that I am one of 100,000 GM members. How many members do you think will obtain GM with the new MQDs...???
I am guessing that the 2015 GM level will include only about 75% of the current level of members.
I'm hoping I get more UGs with the new MQD rules thinning out the herd!
My understanding is that if you make the necessary MQM/MQS for a higher level than you make the necessary MQD, you will be at the level of the MQD you earned. So if you fly 51K MQM but only spend $4,000 MQD, you will be FO.
I think it's probably difficult to fly 25K MQMs without spending $2,500 unless you get it on long hauls. My impression is that the higher you get on MQMs the easier it is to fall short on MQDs. I know posters here have posted counterexamples, but I am speaking generally. I could be wrong. However there is the Amex waiver which seems like it will be very popular.
Given the above I think the ranks of DM and probably PM will be thinned, maybe GM also. But thinning of those ranks means an increase in the rank below, where people flew enough MQMs but didn't spend enough MQDs to qualify for a higher level. However many GMs are thinned out, some percentage of them will be replaced by people who were thinned from the higher ranks. So I don't expect much net thinning at FO or even GM.
Also remember that despite DL's marketing-speak about "giving you a more exclusive medallion experience," it is not in DL's interest to thin the herd. The ideal result for DL is not fewer elites, but for each of those elites to be more profitable than they are now. If people shift spending to Amex, fly a bit more or purchase higher fares to meet MQDs, so much the better for DL. And who can blame them?