Originally Posted by
exerda
UX flights typically have been among the easier upgrades, from the E500 days through UDU and now into CPU. The percentage of F seats can be fairly high (the Q400 and CR7 both have a higher percentage of F than do the A319 and A320, and on par with the 737-700). They also are often found on routes which aren't as elite-heavy, which helps.
Historically, I would agree with this statement. This year, however, things have gotten interesting. My home airport is in the midwest. It is a short hop to either ORD or DEN, which I typically use to get to either the east or west coast.
Up until this year, my CPU success rate was always higher on the short hops to and from home. It makes sense--not a lot of value in buying an upgrade, lots of UX with its higher ratio of first, and relatively elite light loads.
This year my upgrade percentage is down overall (around 70% over all UA flights, down from around 90% two years ago), but it is now lower to and from my home airport than it is for my flights from hubs to the coast. Why? I'm not sure, but I would point to a big decrease in overall capacity and many more no-first regionals, which I think tends to concentrate the HVFs on the planes that do have first.