Batting 100 this year (13/13) until last evening's SEA/IAD red-eye. Wound up 10th on the UG list (737-900) with middle of the road fare class. You never know. I do try to book birds with relatively large pointy ends and off-business peak times (and avoid SFO except as a HNL gateway). This is much better and more predictable (last night not withstanding) than last year. I don't think the last few seats last night were TODs - several of us got >$1300 offers - way too rich for most mortals.