am departure on a 739, when list came out at t-24 I was No. 1, 6 people got upgraded ahead of me... UA did not open up the P/R bucket at all after I bought.

My guess is that on a route like this we are seeing more and more Y fares with 40%/30% discounts as UA increases its discounts to keep corporate accounts from fleeing. The change fee increase to $200 will push more and more traffic this way (into Y) in Managed accounts and they will suck up the upgrades.

I expect to see more and more of this, just another e.g. of why its time to bail on UA....