Thanks Eightback. I'm flying back from DFW and I already upgraded with miles. The IAD flight I'm taking this week looks full in Y today (yesterday 1 seat empty) so I guess it will be barely overbooked in Y. I'm on a Flex ticket so if there aren't too many Golds I might get lucky :-) Flights have been booked already so can't go to JFK instead but thanks for the advice!