There is far too much uncertainty in this country right now to really make any arguments like this. We still do not know for certain if AA and US will merge, and even if they do want to, if it will even be approved. UAs merger is not going smoothly - that may cause the authorities to be leary of approving another merger - if something negative happens with the new UA, it might well cause the airlines to get into another war trying to get frequent flyers. And if we do go over this fiscal cliff, how will that affect the airlines...

I have learned not to put too much stock in what analysts predict. If there is one thing I have learned - business decisions are anything but logical.