EK announced the Flex/Saver changes to Skywards sometime in mid-oct-09 to be effective 1-Jan-10. Assuming they follow the same pattern for announcing the 4th tier (maybe not that big a change, but still a significant one for the program), my guess would be that the chance of seeing the 4th tier become effective from Jan 2013 doesn't seem so bright. (I'd love to be proven wrong though ).