Currently, they modify behavior.

I believe Avid's point is that with enhanced abilities to predict capacity controls, and with more and more airlines moving in the direction of gutting their FF programs (i.e., less emphasis on competing in the FFP arena), we may well reach a point when the major airlines decide that they don't need to induce us to modify our behavior... they can dictate our behavior. Hence, no need for FFPs... at least as we have known them in the past.

For example, the day that DL management can convince themselves that, by reducing FC seats and filling the remaining seats with $10 FCM buy-ups, they can (at least in some spreadsheet) show they are coming out ahead, they won't need a FFP offering FC upgrades. In fact, such a benefit would be a net detriment, in their opinion.

Granted, all it would require for this to fail is for one major carrier to break ranks and emphasize a traditional-type FFP that actually values loyal customers, and treats them honestly and up-front. But, to one degree or another, aren't they all moving away from this paradigm?

At some point, DL management may feel they are in the position to look at your 4th-time DM (or, maybe by then, 5th or 6th time) and ask... "Yeah, but what have you done for us lately?"