Yep, you are right. I can't seem to do math, I guess

Add in my Hilton AMEX points and it actually looks like this for an "average" stay:

2800 base rate
1400 double dip
1400 diamond bonus
500 AMEX online booking bonus
500 to 1000 "myway" bonus points (let's just say on avg 750)
1680 AMEX points (6 points per dollar, calculation doesn't include tax)
Total = 8530 points

+additional 2800 promo points (current promo) bringing the grand total to 11,330.
+additional 840 points if I upgraded to Surpass card (fee) bringing the grand total to 12,170.

So, without the promo, to stay at one of the nicer Hilton's in Hawaii (37,500/nt with VIP discount), I would need aprox 4.4 "average" stays (not including the points from promos and the Surpass card. If I upgraded to the Surpass card, it would take aprox 4 "average" stays".

If I understand Marriott correctly, the points would look like this for a similar "average" stay:

2800 base points
1400 bonus points for Platinum
500 Plat arrival bonus
840 Visa points (free card, doesn't include tax)
Total = 5540

+whatever promos going on
+560 points if I opted for the fee credit card

So, without the promos, to stay at one of the nicer Marriott's in Hawaii (32,000/nt based on 40K per night and 5th night free), I would need aprox 5.8 "average" stays (not including the points from promos and the fee credit card.) If I upgraded to the fee credit card, it would take aprox 5.2 "average" stays".

Am I getting this right? By my calculations, based purely upon points with no promos, Hilton is the better value.