Originally Posted by
spin88
I don't think anyone is suggesting that the releases have been inaccurate (keeping in mind that they are estimates, and get corrected by the next release), I think that what is suggesting (at least what I am suggesting) is that how this all effects UAL's bottom line will not become apparent until we see the total revenue/total cost picture mid month with the Q2 results. The market responds to this bottom line, most investors (and many analysts) have no idea what PRASM is.
But I do appreciate your admission that the PRASM figures are not exactly a vote of confidence by customers in the course that UAL has taken post 3/3. Time will tell.
The estimate is a narrow range based on preliminary data, not mangement estimates. A "miss" in the final number would indicate a flaw in how the preliminary data was collected or an intentional misstatement by management. Neither are legally or ethically acceptable to the SEC or shareholders.
UA's PRASM for the second quarter is evident to analysts at this point and it is inappropriate (at best) to allege that management is holding back data and/or there will be a suprise when final numbers are released. The impact to earnings is unknown as of yet, but that is not what was discussed...
I should note that institutional investors are more concerned with cost and revenue performance than net earnings. Further, I don't think the current PRASM trends are indicative in customers' confidence in UAL.