Originally Posted by
The Blond Kid
AA has got the best route network to South America. I don't see why the best South American carrier would move away from that.
Simple. Because LAN is the best South American carrier, and will get even better with TAM added. LAN doesn't need AA lift to South America. They have huge amounts of their own lift from North America to South America. Now with all of TAM's flights from NYC, MCO, MIA. And LAN Colombia improving their Central America and northern South America connections.
What LATAM would want is better connectivity to the rest of the world, both from South America and via North America. Oneworld is an increasingly shaky alliance of failing carriers and those on peripheries of the action: Siberia, Finland, Spain.
Oneworld: Nobody in Africa. Only a very weakened American in North America, just the USA part of it, with no route network in Canada or Mexico. Only one carrier in Asia. European carriers in the worst connecting hub (by hassle and cost), and on the periphery (IB, Finnair).
Compare to what they get in Star, even assuming US buys AA and AA/US is in oneword so US exits Star: TAP, LH, LX from South America to Europe. South African from South America to Africa. United and Air Canada in North America, both who do provide decent lift into LATAM hubs in LIM, BOG, SCL, EZE, GRU, GIG as well as their North American extensive network. UA's huge Mexico and central american route network gained from CO. Copa's network. Far more choices from the Americas to Asia, with the North American carriers and with Asiana, Thai, Singapore. Air New Zealand pretty much swaps for QANTAS for Australasia. United's Micronesia network inheirited from Continental Mike.
Only problem: arranging to keep AviancaTaca Group from joining Star. So far, they haven't joined Star. Hmm, wonder what the delay is?
Again, I could be utterly wrong. But Star management has talked about recruiting LAN, LAN has talked about "making a decision as to which alliance" rather than coming out and saying "of course we have to bring TAM into oneworld because Chile won't allow us to join Star." And it's 2.5 months overdue for AviancaTaca to join Star. And AV/TA did a huge deal with Skyteam's Aeromexico 1 week before AV/TA was supposed to join Star.