I'd imagine this has been asked and answered somewhere, but I did a search and can't find the info.

I'm an EXP on the 6:10 a.m. flight SFO-ORD tomorrow, with a request in for a complimentary upgrade. Does it make any difference for my place on the upgrade list if I online check in ASAP? If so, is it better or worse to check in early?

FWIW, Expert Flyer is showing F4 and A3, with only half the exit row seats in economy full (including mine). If anyone has any sense of my chances of securing an upgrade under these circumstances, I'd appreciate your best guess. I continue on to Charlottesville from ORD, but I understand that preference for an upgrade at the airport only kicks in for the connecting flight under such circumstances, not for the originating flight. If my chances are really low, I'd probably kick in the $75/15K miles for an upgrade, as I'm out of SWUs but have lots of miles plus it's a tight connection so I'd like to be in the front (not to mention my FOC!).

Thanks for any help!