Originally Posted by zorn

It is (apparently), more than 24 hours out.

You don't know how many people were on the waitlist already ahead of you at 96h.

These include: anyone with eCredits who purchased a Y or B fare at any time before 96h, Super Elites on any fare who waitlisted before you starting 7 days before the flight, and any Elites who squeezed in before you.

At 24 hours things get more nebulous. It is not FCFS. Status, fare, check-in time, and the phase of the moon also play roles.