Originally Posted by
RichardKenner
It's not an "assumption", it's a probability assessment.
My understanding of "probability assessment" is very different from yours. It's like me saying that if I see a squirrel outside it's probable that a dog is nearby. The probability is unstated, and the link between the squirrel and the dog is nothing more than dogs chase squirrels. If that's what you call a probability assessment, so be it.
Originally Posted by
RichardKenner
My guess is that the exact set of criteria to be used hasn't been decided yet and will evolve over time. But given the descriptions of the program that we've seen, it seems highly unlikely that anything like credit score will be used.
My guess is that the program has taken so long to arrive simply because they were trying to decide on criteria. I agree with your guess that the criteria will evolve. I have not confidence, however, that the criteria will actually tie to the risk of an adverse event on an aircraft. It's more likely that the criteria will be whatever can be sold to Capital Hill.