So it is possible for there to be both a net positive for the finance folks and a net positive for (most) elites
Exactly. This will make me more likely to use/accumulate UA miles in 2011. I don't have to worry about "Oh, You want to change from your current UA flight to one that has better timing? $150, please."
One $150 flight change fee I avoid as a 1P pays for 6 close-in award fees I would pay as a 1P. According to the simple math that makes me gullible, this counts as a win for me. Your mileage may vary, because maybe you like close-in awards and never change a booking.