Not true...yet. I would agree with you once the fleets are merged, but until that point, there is a difference. CO people flew on UA before, as UA flew on them. The UA flights used to leave the CO elites in Y (unless they bought F), but now the CO elites that traveled on UA a bit now compete where before they were passively in Y.

And even when fleets are merged, individual markets may become more elite heavy with a less than proportional increase in F. Of course other markets may have a bigger increase in F than the elite pool increase. So yes, on a system basis, if all things remain the same, the overall numbers won't change assuming everything grows/shrinks in a 1:1 ratio of flyers to F seats. I can guarantee that that won't happen, and there will be some markets with a surplus in supply of F seats, and some with a surplus in demand for upgraded F. I'd be interested in knowing what the UA-CO hub routes will be like, what equipment will be used, and the frequency say, Jul of 2012.

But then again, UG availability could skyrocket as the pied pipers of DFW and ATL, Arpey and Anderson, if the rumors I see here are true, are playing their pipe and attracting all the top elites away, so 1p, 2P, and even the lowly NRSA such as myself should be able to sit in F just about anytime.