This is becoming all too familiar to me. Especially on hub to hub flights, which I seem to be in a rut on lately being IAD based and having work in DEN and SFO. Monday morning is the worst, 2 weeks ago I was on 977 to SFO on a last minute E fare...arrived to the gate as #2 / 78 on the UG list with 3 seats available and never cleared. I got to enjoy row 41 for the first time since becoming low level elite years ago.
Next Monday 11-8 I am routing through ORD to DEN (via an outstation) and same phenomenon again...only this time booked 2 weeks out. At least in this case I am the middle of the E- cabin with plenty of seats available on a S fare.
IMO we are dealing with the following factors...
-All of the 2009 legacy elites and 2010 new elites 2P and higher qualify for E+. Beginning in Feb, it will only be 2010 elites (at least for a few months).
-All of the same as above for CO, and anecdotally at least it seems as if more CO elites are trying out UA as opposed to the inverse
-UA is marketing E+ buy ups harder than ever before, ostensibly with some success
I can sort of see the last minute hub to hub Monday AM purchase being sold out in E+...but the same thing 2 weeks+ out? I am a business traveler who never books more than 4 weeks out and usually books inside 2 weeks. If this is what I have to look forward to, I can fly WN...US...Virgin America and a few others ex-IAD to these places, usually for much less than UA advance purchase or not.