A few more datapoints on upgrades.

I have now qualified three times for status Gold/DM/DM. Each time I've been upgraded J->F on my first long haul flight after qualifying. It could be a coincidence, although on the Gold upgrade I saw the manifest mention something like "qualification upgrade".

I am currently upgraded CX255 HKG-LHR on 10/10/10. In every case there was a plausible operational issue. When I asked why today the attendant said "flight full". Indeed J was totally sold out and F was mostly empty and they op'ed up at least four people.

In addition to the long haul upgrade of exactly one per year, I have received one short haul upgrade J-F on CX475 TPE-HKG and two semi-upgrades on HKG-SAP-HKG where they have two class service on a 747. They sat me in the F compartment with J service. The F cabin had not been open for seat assignments.