Originally Posted by Syzygies

I've had 18 flights so far this year between EWR and SFO. I offered miles on 8 flights, upgrading 4 of 8 for 50%. I hung tight waiting for the EUA on 10 flights, upgrading 7 of 10 for 70%. My base fares are best available, waiting for sales far in advance, as a Plat.

The 18 flights earned me 92,340 miles as a Plat. I "risked" 120,000 miles by waitlisting miles on 8 flights, but only spent 60,000 miles for the actual upgrades, still earning 32,340 miles net.

If one really cares about the upgrade, one should aim to break even on miles. By watching the waitlists, one get get a feeling for which flights to waitlist, and which flights to hang tight for the EAU. I'm happy with how I've gamed this. This is a zero-sum game, so I'm happy to offer this advice, but I don't wish to divulge the schedule I've settled upon.