No question the chains can lose money on an FT'er who pays close attention and maximizes his/her participation in the promotion.

But I think we're the exception rather than the norm. They probably get a lot of business travelers who are comped mid-level status in all the chains and now have a little incentive to try an exciting new <insert chain here> instead of their boring old <insert chain here>. Who knows: maybe both Marriott and Hyatt - the two most aggressive this summer - will end up with a net positive conversion of HHonors and Starwood guests. Those guests aren't scouring for $50 Courtyards - they're just swapping their $150 Hilton for a $150 Marriott.

In other words, I think the promotions can be successful in the market of regular business travelers.

To be fair, I think Starwood's promo wasn't bad. Some people would rather have a near-term stash of Free Nights than a few more airlines miles to throw on the pile.