Originally Posted by fcl

Well now it is tomorrow and I received notification from OptionTown that the
upgrade did not clear.

An hypothesis based on the other posted experiences would then be that upgrades only occur if SK thinks there will be an operational reason, like over booking). Another would be that there is a random factor involved to encourage purchase of the higher fare directly rather than the cheaper upgrade. That would kind of explain the logic behind allowing points upgrade as that would allow frequent flyers to "taste" higher classes sometimes and create a demand but not be able to cheaply upgrade using points on each flight.

I might hesitate to sign up for OptionTown for future flights if I expect (based on availability and seat map) that the flight will not have a need for operational upgrades.