Jackstay

I was scheduled on UA842 GRU-ORD-LAX yesterday on M fare with upgrade waitlisted. The GRU-ORD leg was cancelled for a mechanical. I was rebooked on CO in Y and flew GRU-IAH-LAX.

I was expecting to earn 13,994 EQM (5252 x 2 + 1745 x 2, including DEQM) for UA842, which is what I received for UA843 LAX-ORD-GRU outbound. Oddly enough, the waitlisted upgrade on "My Itineraries" showed the mileage as 6156, the great circle mileage between GRU and LAX not the sum of the two individual segments so its possible if the upgrade had happened it may have resulted in fewer EQM/RDMs. I have no idea why the two cases for the same flights would be calculated differently.

I am awaiting the two CO flights to post to my MP account, which in my limited experience takes about three days. I expect this to yield 9423 EQM (4903 x 1.5 + 1379 x 1.5 including Y COS bonus), a difference of 4571 fewer EQMs.

The question is whether to apply for the original routing credit or to leave well enough alone. I will qualify for 1K either way, but not if the GRU-LAX flights aren't credited at all (or are not credited until after 31 Dec?). Three reasons to try to get ORC are (1) 4 more e500s, possibly useful before UDU begins (2) better RDM yield and (3) 14K miles closer to MM. The negative is the remote risk of not making 1K if there is a cock-up.

Any thoughts?