As an airline pilot of 19 years, I never understood that logic because the pilots have been on board of every airliner that has ever crashed.

As far as the original question goes, a passenger does not have enough information for specific knowledge to make that kind of determination. Either you trust the system and fly or you don't trust the system and should probably look for another way to get around. Any judgment you make from the partial facts available to the passengers will be wrong at least as often as it's right.