The upgrade list is a relatively worthless tool until about 60 minutes prior to boarding. At that point it becomes somewhat useful and reflective of approximately where the upgrades will fall. Only at actual departure is it fully accurate. Looking at it at T-24h doesn't really do much good.

As for more or fewer upgrades on various routes? My numbers are pretty high for 2009 as a platinum and cheap fares. I've got a couple flights coming up this weekend as a gold that should be a bit more of a challenge.