What could end, or at least significantly impact, the industry FF programs would be if a crusading state attorney general (sort of like Elliott Spitzer was before he found bimbos) decided to investigate the system (perhaps it might require a Justice Department federal investigation).

With all the miles now being sold to and, effectively awarded by, credit card companies, florists, restaurants, magazine subscription services... the list goes on ad naseum... do the airlines really provide redemption opportunities commensurate with the rate that they are dispensing miles?

It would be intriguing to see an objective analysis of:

How many miles are awarded each year?

How many miles are redeemed each year?

How many miles expire each year?

Are the redemption seats offered each day sufficient to consume the miles awarded each day (doubling the miles required for ticket certainly, on paper, helps the airline satisfy this one)?

Consider a hypothetical example...

Assume 250 people on a plane (virtually all flights are full these days) Yes, I realize that all PAX will not be FFs... let's assume 100 are (sign up for a credit card and you become a "FF")

Assume 4-leg RT with total of 2500 FF miles awarded to each FF (not unreasonable considering some airlines still award a minimum of 500 miles per segment)

So, up to 250,000 miles FF awarded (does not take into consideration whether the ticket was purchased with an airline credit card... more miles awarded there. I travel a lot, but there are months where my credit card earned miles far exceed my mileage miles).

If an award award ticket requires 25,000 miles, it would take only 10 seats to "consume" all of the FF miles awarded (5 seats at 50,000 miles per seat).

One could do a sensitivity analysis of the different variables, but the point remains... how many award seats are available on a typical large jet? I have no way of knowing, but others must.

Are there enough in aggregate on all flights to "comsume" the miles as fast as they are awarded... or are the airlines counting on most of the people letting their 25,000 mile credit card enrollment bonuses expire before they are used?

Thoughts?