minnyfly

You're making wild assumptions to cover the contradiction. How do you know it's now a "much higher price"? How come it's not too high a cost at EWR, ORD, etc. to win back customers, but it is for JFK even when Kirby implies the lost business is hurting them significantly? Remember, Kirby has been caught before in contradicting statements (PHL-TLV).

I've already shown to you that this argument logically can't be true. My main example points have included re-acquisition costs from the start! It's one of only two major factors speaking against returning to JFK.

Now you're agreeing with me. In order for both of Kirby's statements/implications to be true, JFK had to be minutely marginal on the overall bottom line. That means it was worthy of consideration to be cut, and it causes his "wrong decision" statement to be a gross exaggeration.


That example is only valid if one-time costs have risen greatly over time. There's nothing to indicate that any cost to return to JFK has increased so exponentially to cause a more than marginal operation to not be worth restarting.

Oh I know that. And I make sure to point that out since it supports my position. It proves that there's more than one way to make a deal. It's also only partly true. The DL/UA deal ended up being a straight long-term lease sell of the JFK slots. And with that we know the market price at the time. It has to be exponentially higher now to possibly keep UA out.

You're also assuming that airlines won't sell for any price. That goes against reason.

Previous product has nothing to do with this. In fact, arguing that a poor product hurt UA towards the end actually makes returning a better proposition and bolsters my belief about Kirby. It means there is more business out there to be gained, making his implication of staying away from JFK more flawed.

halls120

Why, because you say so? Have any actual facts to support your position?

tphuang

Those weren't the market price. Those were price used so they can get the deals past DOT. The deals were slot swap.

I don't know what the actual price is, but I think you are far more likely to get a deal through slot/gate swap than outright purchase.

At the moment, UA feels the price is too high, but who knows, maybe the price will get better over time. Either way, the assumption that UA can keep sticking around at EWR and not get competition from B6/DL/AA is also flawed. There is no reason DL or B6 would not be interested in putting premium transcon out at EWR-LAX/SFO at some point now that slots are no longer an issue out there. UA can keep playing defense or it can go on offense.

cerealmarketer

I think the flyertalk crowd overindexes to value seeking transit riders than those who take the fastest ground transport at any cost.

I'm one of them - even when it's other people's money. But I know that's not the typical high dollar flier.

Google maps has the hard, unbiased data based on actual GPS enabled historic travel times point to points.

Le Parker Meridien (a tough place to get to either direction) to JFK and EWR on an afternoon at 330, catching an early evening departure....

EWR: 35 min - 1 h 10 min
JFK: 1 h 5 min - 2 h 10 min

Coming *from* the airport at 730am...

EWR: 35 min - 1 h 40 min
JFK: 1 h - 2 h 10 min

Sure, the JFK airtrain is nicer than the EWR one, and LIRR runs more often. In fact the express bus is faster to EWR than the train.

But for the typical HVF who isn't going to mess with transit, and wants a private Uber or car to handle phone calls, etc and ride door to door nonstop.

EWR routes are much more reliable when it comes to traffic.

JFK battles all the Long Island commuters funneled into the LIE.

EWR...Jersey commuters are dispersed north and south.

It's simple geography backed by hard data.

But you won't get this board that gets some sort of self esteem kick out of JFK to face the facts these images show.

http://imgur.com/a/KGAzl

http://imgur.com/a/54MpC

goodeats21

I am wondering if the apparent start up of ps service on the Boston routes is their offense play to offset their abandonment of JFK? I don't know enough about the corporate / managed world in airlines for BOS, but feels like this could be a play to regain their attention?

cerealmarketer

You are correct about uninformed West Coast provincial thinking.

But do you think a West Coast flyer who can't figure out that EWR and JFK are pretty much equidistant from Manhattan is going to attempt to figure out public transit from any NY area airport?

I write this from a Delta LAX-JFK transcon flight, to be clear. I used UA on the outbound.

And I was born and raised in the Bay Area.

JVPhoto

Meanwhile on the other side of the country I am happy that SJC is getting more flights.
Saves me 2 hours round trip and it's possible to get family or friends to drop me off or pick me up.
Worked for me when I went to IAH, I have an upcoming ORD trip and later in the year I found R space to EWR so I used my GPUs instead of poking around for SFO. During ski season if it links up with the MTJ flight through DEN I'd take it then .

sbm12

No. It is a bid to keep some premium traffic that is looking strongly at JetBlue with Mint plus faster, free wifi on board. Or that DL is putting lie-flats on the SFO-BOS route, too.

uastarflyer

Not just Californians but folks traveling from overseas. It is unfortunate Newark and New York sound alike.

i guess all the carriers choosing JFK v EWR are wrong and smisek is right. It is a possibility.

spin88

except, the reports that it is all lie flat are not exactly correct. Next Friday (May 5)
-first flight is a 737-800
- then its a 772 showing Hawaii Configuration (which might become the horrible 777 Domestic with its seats that are 1" narrower in Y than on the 737),
-then the horrible 777 domestic with its horrible Y seats
- than a 757-300
- then a 737-900
- then the red-eye is a 737-900.

Not sure what the competition with Mint is. A few (ok one) bird with old ITPE coffin J, but only one plane with good product on it, which is the 757-300.

PsiFighter37

The thread talking about this clearly states that all lie-flats on SFO<>BOS are loaded in from sometime in June, not May.

EWR764

The 753 is a good product, or at least better compared to the 738/739? They're virtually the same (IMO ex-TZ 753s are worse, but all are being slimmed)... and in the summer, save for extreme weather, westbound fuel stops are unlikely.

As noted, BOS-SFO gets a premium TCON hard product on all flights effective June 8.

Eupatoria

I agree with this. I haven't been on the train from either JFK or EWR in ages. I just don't have the luxury to not be effectively accessible after, say, a 5 hour flight, even if I had wi-fi on said flight. Most business travelers I know will fly into JFK v EWR based on their preferred airline, nothing else. The only thing I care about is whether I can easily get a cab / Uber.

findark

Presence of door 2 makes a huge difference IMO, and 1AB are the best normal F seats in the fleet.

Say Vandelay

The high value flyers he was referring too aren't taking public transit from any NY area airport even if it's faster.

I still have yet to fly a p.s. flight from EWR where J isn't totally full or where you can apply instruments or book in R.