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Old Jul 7, 2016, 7:40 pm
  #1  
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United Reports June 2016 Operational Performance ..

United Reports June 2016 Operational Performance

CHICAGO, July 11, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- United Airlines (UAL) today reported June 2016 operational results.
UAL's June 2016 consolidated traffic (revenue passenger miles) increased 1.4 percent and consolidated capacity (available seat miles) increased 0.5 percent versus June 2015. UAL's June 2016 consolidated load factor increased 0.8 points compared to June 2015.

The company now expects second quarter 2016 consolidated passenger unit revenue to decline 6.50 to 6.75 percent compared to the second quarter of 2015. The year-over-year performance was primarily impacted by a strong U.S. dollar, lower surcharges, travel reductions from customers impacted by declining oil prices, competitive actions and passenger demand not growing at the same pace as industry capacity. The company's consolidated passenger unit revenue result was near the top end of the initial guidance range due to better international yields than originally expected and an increase in business travel in the final week of June, likely associated with the timing of the Fourth of July holiday.
pdf link

Investor Update 11 July 2016

Code:
June Preliminary Operational Results
                      2016   2015   Change
On-Time Performance4  65.0%  49.8%  15.2 pts
Completion Factor5    98.0%  96.5%  1.5 pts
    
4Based on consolidated scheduled flights arriving on or before scheduled arrival time {A:0}
5Consolidated completion percentage {mainline & express}
previous results
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...rformance.html


United Reports June 2015 Operational Performance


FlightStats Global Airlines Arrival Performance - June 2016

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jul 11, 2016 at 9:26 pm Reason: filled in template
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Old Jul 7, 2016, 8:50 pm
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Bonus Material July 1-4, 2016 operational results

United Airlines Celebrates Company-Best Fourth of July Holiday On-Time Performance
Record-breaking holiday operational results build upon best six-month stretch of on-time performance in airline's five-year combined history

CHICAGO, July 5, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- United Airlines reached another significant milestone in the company's ongoing commitment to providing customers with on-time and reliable service, achieving a company-best for percentage of mainline and regional flights arriving at or before their scheduled arrival time from July 1 through July 4.

This performance – 72.2 percent for the holiday period – represents a 20.4 percent increase over 2015 and a 48.7 percent increase over 2014.

"We are getting more customers to meetings, beaches and family gatherings on time than ever before in our combined company history," said Greg Hart, United's executive vice president and chief operations officer. "Our operational momentum has never been stronger thanks to the focus and dedication of our employees across the entire airline."

United's recent achievement caps off the best six-month stretch of on-time performance in the five-year combined company's history. Key highlights include:
• A nearly 23 percent increase in mainline flights arriving at or before their scheduled arrival times for the first half of the year as compared to the same time period in 2015.
• Finishing first or second in on-time arrivals among the four largest U.S. network carriers each month for the first six months of the year.
• A 27 percent increase in mainline flights departing on time for the first half of the year as compared to the same time period in 2015.
United launched several operational initiatives last year to improve reliability, including making scheduling adjustments, increasing its focus on teamwork and utilizing innovative technology in the airline's state-of-the-art Network Operations Center. As United reported last month, the airline expects approximately $300 million of value by 2018 from running a more reliable airline.
First reaction was ??? but needed to remind myself these are A:0 numbers and that last year, June / July 2015, had pretty dismal operational performance.
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 3:37 pm
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Just a reminder, 2016 OnTime results are A:0 (arrival early or on time)
while reports in June 2015 originally were A:14 (arrival early or less later 15 minutes late) June 2015 A:14 was 66.4%.

This does make it hard to do a comparison to other airlines which initially report A:14. Will need to wait for the BTS reports to get UA's June A:14 numbers

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jul 11, 2016 at 3:45 pm Reason: BTS comment
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 4:18 pm
  #4  
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They're definitely making progress on the arrival front; I had a bunch of recent flights in an out of ORD that were on the ground plenty early, and were waiting for gates.
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 4:35 pm
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
June 2015 A:14 was 66.4%.
Since the 2Q 2016/2015 A:0 numbers are: 65.0%/49.8%, a tremendous improvement, I'll estimate that 2Q16 A:14 numbers are between 76-81%. Congrats to UA for the progress.
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 4:38 pm
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Originally Posted by sinoflyer
Since the 2Q 2016/2015 A:0 numbers are: 65.0%/49.8%, a tremendous improvement, I'll estimate that 2Q16 A:14 numbers are between 76-81%. Congrats to UA for the progress.
No need to estimate; while not the final DOT numbers, flightstats should get you very close, and is available for June 2016:

http://www.flightstats.com/company/m...orts/airlines/
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 4:45 pm
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Okay, 80.69%. Within my range of 76-81%
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 9:22 pm
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I would like to focus on the "investor update" and wow, another quarter of badly under-performing. Ask why UA did a huge status give-away? Why it put forward the most liberal give away of miles for more business this quarter? [Full disclosure, neither of which I was offered] Well this announcements confirms why: United is doing very, very badly at attracting traffic, of any sort, let alone the high paying type, compared to Delta.

This quarter United is (midpoint of guidance) at 12.52 c/mi PRASM, this is down a midpoint of (6.625)%. United did this with flat capacity[+.1% ASM], and reduced traffic (.5% RPM). For comparison in 2011 (before "the plan” was implemented) in 2Q United’s PRASM was 13.24 c/mi.

The most direct competitor, and one that is expanding into UA’s markets, Delta is at about 13.55 c/mi this quarter, this is down (5%). Yet Delta had its capacity go up 3%, and its traffic went up about 3%. For Comparison in 2011 in the 2Q Delta’s PRASM was 13.12 c/mi

So in the last five years Delta’s PRASM is up 3.3%, United’s has fallen by (5.6%) This is a gap of 8.9% in PRASM over five years. If my revenue figure below is correct, if United had Delta’s PRASM it would have had another $717M in revenue this quarter.

And it is not that United’s PRASM is down because it has been attracting new customers, watering down its yield, Traffic wise, in 2011 Delta flew 50.3B RPMs, and 55.4B in 2016, so Delta’s traffic is up 10.1%. United? In 2016 it flew 54B RPMs in 2011 it flew 54.2B RPMs. So UA has had flat traffic over the last five years.

In 2q 2011 DAL had Passenger Revenue of $7,891M, United’s was $8,606M. If I run the numbers for this quarter, Delta’s ought to be about $8,942M; United’s will be around $8,060M.

So if UA gets its act together re OT performance, it still has a huge way to go in attracting back the traffic it lost revenue wise.
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Old Jul 11, 2016, 9:43 pm
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Originally Posted by entropy
They're definitely making progress on the arrival front; I had a bunch of recent flights in an out of ORD that were on the ground plenty early, and were waiting for gates.
Me too, but this masks the occasional total system meltdown experiences where your ORD-SFO is the one that's delayed hours and then cancelled while all the others leave spot on schedule, with no one knowing what's going on.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 5:54 am
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Originally Posted by spin88
So if UA gets its act together re OT performance, it still has a huge way to go in attracting back the traffic it lost revenue wise.
I would say that in the last six months, they have. Operationally, they are already better than AA, and the gap with Delta is closer than before. I think we need to see a full year of improved performance, however, before United can reasonably expect its reputation/public perception to improve. At that point, we'll be firmly in a downward macro cycle, and United will never really be able to 'regain' the theoretical ground you argue (monthly) it has lost.

UA completely missed the boat on this round due to a panoply of factors, including several years of gross mismanagement. I think they need to work to position themselves favorably for the next economic cycle.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 6:25 am
  #11  
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Originally Posted by spin88
So if UA gets its act together re OT performance, it still has a huge way to go in attracting back the traffic it lost revenue wise.
Entirely agreed. With that said, I would have figured that you would have to see operational performance improve before any of the other metrics could get better. I had to stop flying UA for anything that involved a tight connection/meeting time over the past five years. Regardless of how I feel about the other more qualitative aspects of the service, if they can't get you there on time at a reasonable clip how can they attract HVFs who may enjoy program perks but are mostly booking into the front of the bus anyway?

Hope we see the follow-through on financial results because otherwise the shareholder base will start agitating again for more seismic changes to company strategy/composition.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 8:13 am
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United's Q2 revenue result will be at the more favorable end of forecasts. The market is obviously pleased with that news in a day that has been good for airline stocks across the board.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 8:30 am
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Originally Posted by entropy
They're definitely making progress on the arrival front; I had a bunch of recent flights in an out of ORD that were on the ground plenty early, and were waiting for gates.

If UA would stop padding their flight times we might see a more honest arrival % rate...i was on AX last week from stl-iad and the flight left 40mins late but some how made it to iad 4 mins late.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 8:38 am
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Originally Posted by cosflyer
If UA would stop padding their flight times we might see a more honest arrival % rate...i was on AX last week from stl-iad and the flight left 40mins late but some how made it to iad 4 mins late.
Don't all airlines pad flight times? I was under the impression that Delta pads its flights way more than United... Since I fly LAX -> SFO decently, I know that United ranges its flight times from 1 hr 22m in -> 1 hr 30 min for these flights. After a quick search, it shows that Delta ranges their flights for the same route from 1 hr 26 min -> 1 hr 36 min.
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Old Jul 12, 2016, 8:46 am
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I dunno but looks like they don't have any breakdown by hubs ?
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