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A Comprehensive Look at Domestic First Class Monetization (FCM) on United

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Old Feb 16, 2016, 6:52 pm
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Last edit by: findark
Table 1: United First fare differential versus same fare in United Economy
Code:
lax |   99    --
sea |  129   129    --
den |  129   129   159    --
dfw |  159   159   199x  129    --
msp |  199   199   159x  129   129x   --
iah |  199   159   199   129    79   159    --
ord |  199   199   199   129   129    99   129    --
atl |  249   199x  249x  159   129x  129   129   129    --
iad |  299   249   249   159   159   129   159   129   129    --
ewr |  460‡  451‡  299   199   159   159   159   129   129    79    --
fll |  299   249x  299x  199   159x  159x  129   159    --   129   159x   --
bos |  299   299x  299x  199   199x  159x  199   129   129x   99    79   159x
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
       sfo   lax   sea   den   dfw   msp   iah   ord   atl   iad   ewr   fll
x indicates that there is no normal nonstop service between the city pair. Up to two transfers (connections) are free in each direction.
‡ indicates there is no /UPDI fare published for this route. Amount is the difference between lowest available UP fare and current Economy (lowest), provided for reference.
-- indicates United does not publish a fare for this city pair.


Table 1.5: United First fare differential as a function of flight distance (partly speculation)
Code:
 total distance   fare differential
   min   max            ($)
------------------------------------
         299             79
   300   499             99
   500   999            129
  1000  1499            159
  1500  1999            199
  2000  2399            249
  2400                  299
Table 3: Minimum fare class with matched United First fare
Code:
lax |   K    -
sea |   K    K    -
den |   K    K    K    -
dfw |   K    K    L    K    -
msp |   K‡   K    L    K    K    -
iah |   L‡   K*   K‡   K    K‡   T‡    -
ord |   L    K*   L‡   L    K*   K*   K    -
atl |   K    K    L‡   K    K    K‡   K    K    -
iad |   T‡   K*   L‡   K‡   K    K*   K    K    K    -
ewr |   -    -    K    K    K    K‡   K    K*   K*   Q     -
fll |   K    K    L    K    K    K    K    K    -    K    K    -
bos |   K*   L‡   L    K    L    T    K    K    L    K    K    L
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
       sfo  lax  sea  den  dfw  msp  iah  ord  atl  iad  ewr  fll
- indicates no /UPDI fare is published for the route
‡ indicates the minimum matched fare is also the minimum published fare
* indicates that there is a lower, unmatched fare with the same basis letter as the lowest matched fare
The United Economy booking code hierarchy is: Y B M E U H Q V W S T L K G N
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A Comprehensive Look at Domestic First Class Monetization (FCM) on United

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Old Jan 29, 2016, 8:08 am
  #16  
 
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This is brilliant!
Thank you!^

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Old Jan 29, 2016, 9:12 am
  #17  
 
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MANY THANKS! Brilliant and comprehensive analysis that helps me understand the bigger picture of what's really going on with these fares.

I guess this also helps explain why some on FT have reported problems with rebooking during IRROPS where their supposed "F" fare suddenly puts them in Y. A key conclusion I take from your analysis is that this is becoming the rule, rather than the exception, for how UA deals with domestic F fares. Thus, they need to have a better way to either ensure pax with IRROPS are rebooked into F or make it clearer to the pax when they buy the fare there is a risk with this fare they may suddenly find themselves back in coach.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 10:27 am
  #18  
 
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At first, this looked like one of those indecipherable (at least to me) academic research papers, then I read it and actually understood what you were writing! Thanks for this incredible effort to help us understand the science behind this favorite topic of ours.

Is there a way to tell easily if an TOD offer was going to book into a premium fare or not? Knowing whether you would be getting the additional PQM's can help you decide whether to take it. For example, had two separate $89 IAH-EWR TOD's book into A, which is now worth an additional 1400 PQM's each.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 10:35 am
  #19  
 
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Wow, thanks for all this work!
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 11:57 am
  #20  
 
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Thank you for a terrific analysis! It was very insightful about what I should expect to pay for First on different routes, and the 7.8 cpm average differential for SEA really explains why I have not been close to the top of an upgrade list for a long time!
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 2:21 pm
  #21  
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Wonderful contribution.

My only suggestion would be to add a line near Table 3 listing the UA fare classes in order for the convenience of those who do not have the list memoirzed.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 3:27 pm
  #22  
 
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Originally Posted by tarheelnj
At first, this looked like one of those indecipherable (at least to me) academic research papers, then I read it and actually understood what you were writing! Thanks for this incredible effort to help us understand the science behind this favorite topic of ours.
I'm not sure I've deciphered it yet!

But it's a lot easier to understand than much of what I've read on the topic. And, at least for me, some of the data tables were fascinating, such as the L-Up and K-Up fares from ORD, which I don't think I've ever noticed before.

OP, thanks for posting this!

Others, looking forward to thoughts on how we can best use this information. I'm a big fan of UP fares and anything that can get me additional PQM's without adding a lot of cost!
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 3:41 pm
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Findark, great post. Thanks. Explain why I always fly F ORD<>SEA.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 3:49 pm
  #24  
 
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Very rarely do you get a thread here that provides game-changing insights to even the most seasoned "experts" - bravo to this. Wow.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 4:55 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by lotemblizej
A key conclusion I take from your analysis is that this is becoming the rule, rather than the exception, for how UA deals with domestic F fares. Thus, they need to have a better way to either ensure pax with IRROPS are rebooked into F or make it clearer to the pax when they buy the fare there is a risk with this fare they may suddenly find themselves back in coach.
Hopefully the longer this pricing structure exists, the fewer problems there will be. My best guess of what happens in IRROPS is an agent looks at the coupon and the eight-digit fare basis, and assumes the original ticket is in economy. They could look for the revenue First booking code, but perhaps some agents don't. A CPUed/RPUed reservation would look identical if the /UPDI suffix is hidden, with the exception of the booking code R.

A lot of the stories with IRROPS issues have indicated that telling confused agents "this is one of those /UPDI fares" or similar yields better results.

Originally Posted by tarheelnj
Is there a way to tell easily if an TOD offer was going to book into a premium fare or not? Knowing whether you would be getting the additional PQM's can help you decide whether to take it. For example, had two separate $89 IAH-EWR TOD's book into A, which is now worth an additional 1400 PQM's each.
Hard to get data without doing it, but my best guess would be that TODs will book into the lowest open bucket in the front cabin (including non-rev buckets). United makes it pretty clear they don't intend TODs to count as paid premium cabin travel, but they evidently sell them even when a flight is PN0 R0. So instead of forcing inventory, I'd guess they take what's there. A flight that's F3 A3 Z0 would TOD into A (and earn), and a flight that's F5 ... P5 PN5 R0 would TOD into PN (and not earn).

But that's all guesswork from TOD thread stories, not personal experience. I'd love to try, but AFAIK no way to do this with dummy bookings

Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Wonderful contribution.

My only suggestion would be to add a line near Table 3 listing the UA fare classes in order for the convenience of those who do not have the list memoirzed.
Done!
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 5:20 pm
  #26  
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Originally Posted by findark
Hard to get data without doing it, but my best guess would be that TODs will book into the lowest open bucket in the front cabin (including non-rev buckets). United makes it pretty clear they don't intend TODs to count as paid premium cabin travel, but they evidently sell them even when a flight is PN0 R0. So instead of forcing inventory, I'd guess they take what's there. A flight that's F3 A3 Z0 would TOD into A (and earn), and a flight that's F5 ... P5 PN5 R0 would TOD into PN (and not earn).
Would a TOD be preferable to a buy-up, ever? Based on your analysis, it seems to indicate that you could just buy-up to the equivalent /UPDI fare instead of getting the TOD, and get a real earning F fare. No?
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 5:30 pm
  #27  
 
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Simply astonishing. findark, you've singlehandedly renewed my faith in FT.
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 6:51 pm
  #28  
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Outstanding work and analysis! ^^
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 6:53 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
Table 1: United First fare differential versus same fare in United Economy
Code:
lax |   49    --
sea |   69    79    --
den |  139    69    79    --
dfw |  159    79    99+  129    --
msp |   99    99    79+   69    79+   --
iah |  698‡   79    99   139    79    79    --
ord |  199   199    99   129   129    59   129    --
atl |  139    99+  139+   79    79+   79+   79    79    --
iad |  349   249   299   159   159*   79   159   129    79    --
ewr |  450‡  444‡  299    99   159    79    79    79    79    49    --
fll |  279   189+  189+  229   129+  129+  149   159    --   129+  129    --
bos |  349   369   149   209   199+   79+  209   129    79+   99    49   129+
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
       sfo   lax   sea   den   dfw   msp   iah   ord   atl   iad   ewr   fll
+ indicates that there is no direct service between the city pair. An additional $25 per connection, plus ad valorem tax (US), will be added to the given amount. This does mean direct in the technical sense, not nonstop.
‡ indicates there is no /UPDI fare published for this route. Amount is the difference between lowest available UP fare and current Economy (lowest), provided for reference.
-- indicates United does not publish a fare for this city pair.
* indicates an UP fare is the lowest available fare to price into First with wide open inventory. The /UPDI differential is given instead, although a cheaper First fare may be available.
-- is a city pair UA does not publish a fare because UA doesn't fly flights from and to the same city except for ATL-FLL.

Any reason you didn't fill up the top of the matrix. Are all the differences the same irregardless of the direction? Ie., the fare difference between LAX-DFW is the same as DFW-LAX? Oops no data for that and other LAX city pairs.

A lot of work in that table.

The take home lesson is always check to see how much F is on a domestic flight because it might be affordable?
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Old Jan 29, 2016, 7:41 pm
  #30  
 
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This ought to be stickied.

Bravo!
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