Apr 22, 2014, 3:19 pm
Last edit by: spin88
So that the numbers don't get lost, here are the current estimates, and 1Q 2013 numbers, and the actual results can be added in the next few days:
DAL – earnings released on 4/23
1Q 2013 results: .10/share - $85M profit
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: .29/share - $244M profit
1Q estimated revenue: $8.92B, 1Q 2013 revenue was $8.5B
Actual results:
- $281M net income, 33c/share. [Delta's pre-tax income, ex special items was $444M]
- PRASM up 3.5%, yield up 1.7%; domestic yield +5.3%
- ASM +1.7%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items was + .3%
- Operating Revenue: 8.916B (+5%); Passenger Revenue 7.677B ( up 4.9%)
- $951 in operating cash flow and $390M in free cash, net debt $9.1M
- 2Q projections: Operating margin 14-16%, CASM + 0-2%.
http://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/...t/default.aspx
UAL – earnings released on 4/24
1Q 2013 results: (.98)/share - ($364M) loss
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: (1.35)/share - ($501M) loss
1Q estimated revenue $8.71B; 1Q 2013 revenue was $8.72B.
Actual results:
- ($489M) loss, ($1.33)/share loss ex-special charges
- ($609M) loss, ($1.66)/share GAAP [What the difference is will be interesting]
- PRASM down (2%)
- Yield down (2%)
- Total Revenue down (.3%) to 8.7B
- Passenger revenue down (2.3%) to 7.4B
- ancelary fees income up 7.6%
- CASM +1%
- mainline OT - 74.3%
- 2Q 2014 guidance: PRASM +1-3%.
http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings....731&highlight=
AAL - earnings released on 4/24.
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: .48/share - $226M profit
1Q estimated revenue $10.02B
Actual results:
- .65/share, $480M profit GAAP
- .54/share, $408M profit excluding one-time items
- Revenue 10B (+5.6% on combined basis)
- yield +3.2% (to 17.03 c/mi)
- PRASM +2.9%
- ASM +2%
DAL – earnings released on 4/23
1Q 2013 results: .10/share - $85M profit
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: .29/share - $244M profit
1Q estimated revenue: $8.92B, 1Q 2013 revenue was $8.5B
Actual results:
- $281M net income, 33c/share. [Delta's pre-tax income, ex special items was $444M]
- PRASM up 3.5%, yield up 1.7%; domestic yield +5.3%
- ASM +1.7%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items was + .3%
- Operating Revenue: 8.916B (+5%); Passenger Revenue 7.677B ( up 4.9%)
- $951 in operating cash flow and $390M in free cash, net debt $9.1M
- 2Q projections: Operating margin 14-16%, CASM + 0-2%.
http://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/...t/default.aspx
UAL – earnings released on 4/24
1Q 2013 results: (.98)/share - ($364M) loss
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: (1.35)/share - ($501M) loss
1Q estimated revenue $8.71B; 1Q 2013 revenue was $8.72B.
Actual results:
- ($489M) loss, ($1.33)/share loss ex-special charges
- ($609M) loss, ($1.66)/share GAAP [What the difference is will be interesting]
- PRASM down (2%)
- Yield down (2%)
- Total Revenue down (.3%) to 8.7B
- Passenger revenue down (2.3%) to 7.4B
- ancelary fees income up 7.6%
- CASM +1%
- mainline OT - 74.3%
- 2Q 2014 guidance: PRASM +1-3%.
http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings....731&highlight=
AAL - earnings released on 4/24.
Current 1Q 2014 estimate: .48/share - $226M profit
1Q estimated revenue $10.02B
Actual results:
- .65/share, $480M profit GAAP
- .54/share, $408M profit excluding one-time items
- Revenue 10B (+5.6% on combined basis)
- yield +3.2% (to 17.03 c/mi)
- PRASM +2.9%
- ASM +2%
UAL (United Airlines) 1Q 2014 Results, Discussion, News, etc.
Apr 24, 2014, 5:53 am
#272
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Investors don't like surprises, even good ones. While there are some public companies that are relatively opaque, one of the jobs of management at every U.S. airline is to set an accurate assessment for earnings with interim investor guidance.
On a side note, I find it interesting that the same old crowd of short sellers is insinuating UAL is lying when it attributes $200 million of its loss to weather. You can question UAL's management of weather events and disproportionate exposure to certain geographic areas; however, the earnings release contains facts and we are not in a position to say said facts are right or wrong. Doing so is tantamount to accusations of securities fraud by the management of UAL, its auditors and other advisers. Doing so has nothing to do with the goal of this forum and it is disgusting that such behavior continues.
On a side note, I find it interesting that the same old crowd of short sellers is insinuating UAL is lying when it attributes $200 million of its loss to weather. You can question UAL's management of weather events and disproportionate exposure to certain geographic areas; however, the earnings release contains facts and we are not in a position to say said facts are right or wrong. Doing so is tantamount to accusations of securities fraud by the management of UAL, its auditors and other advisers. Doing so has nothing to do with the goal of this forum and it is disgusting that such behavior continues.
Apr 24, 2014, 5:57 am
#273
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: What I write is my opinion alone..don't read into it anything not written.
Posts: 9,686
"Revenue Environment
Delta's operating revenue improved 5 percent, or $416 million, in the March 2014 quarter compared to the March 2013 quarter, despite $90 million of lost revenue due to weather-related cancellations"
Apr 24, 2014, 6:03 am
#274
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Virginia, USA
Posts: 4,508
Investors don't like surprises, even good ones. While there are some public companies that are relatively opaque, one of the jobs of management at every U.S. airline is to set an accurate assessment for earnings with interim investor guidance.
On a side note, I find it interesting that the same old crowd of short sellers is insinuating UAL is lying when it attributes $200 million of its loss to weather. You can question UAL's management of weather events and disproportionate exposure to certain geographic areas; however, the earnings release contains facts and we are not in a position to say said facts are right or wrong. Doing so is tantamount to accusations of securities fraud by the management of UAL, its auditors and other advisers. Doing so has nothing to do with the goal of this forum and it is disgusting that such behavior continues.
On a side note, I find it interesting that the same old crowd of short sellers is insinuating UAL is lying when it attributes $200 million of its loss to weather. You can question UAL's management of weather events and disproportionate exposure to certain geographic areas; however, the earnings release contains facts and we are not in a position to say said facts are right or wrong. Doing so is tantamount to accusations of securities fraud by the management of UAL, its auditors and other advisers. Doing so has nothing to do with the goal of this forum and it is disgusting that such behavior continues.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:07 am
#275
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: What I write is my opinion alone..don't read into it anything not written.
Posts: 9,686
UPS also said weather events cost them $200 million, same as UAL DL, with different hubs said $90 million. These numbers don't seem to be out of line in comparison to other air transportation companies figures reported. Why do you insinuate that UA is overly interpreting their weather losses when others are reporting numbers, that when network size and locations are considered seem to be not out of line?
Last edited by fastair; Apr 24, 2014 at 6:14 am
Apr 24, 2014, 6:10 am
#276
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: Marriott Titanium Elite, UA Silver, AA Gold
Posts: 494
Disappointing results.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:17 am
#277
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2012
Programs: UA PP, AA, DL, BA, CX, SPG, HHonors
Posts: 2,002
Well .... Technically they did beat estimates ... -489 instead of -501
PRASM is lower but total revenue ASM is flat at 15.20, so UA is doing something right with cargo and other sources.
UA simply has a cost problem. Closing CLE will fix a lot of it very quickly. DL can flood the market with capacity and gas guzzlers all they want, but if the next fuel spike or recession strikes, they're most exposed.
PRASM is lower but total revenue ASM is flat at 15.20, so UA is doing something right with cargo and other sources.
UA simply has a cost problem. Closing CLE will fix a lot of it very quickly. DL can flood the market with capacity and gas guzzlers all they want, but if the next fuel spike or recession strikes, they're most exposed.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:17 am
#278
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NYC: UA 1K, DL Platinum, AAirpass, Avis PC
Posts: 4,599
I always find the regional results most interesting...
UA / DL yield % year over year 1Q2014
Domestic +0.3% / +5.3%
Atlantic +0.4%/ -0.3%
Pacific -4.0% / -5.4%
Latam -3.6% / -1.6%
Regional -6% / +0.1%
So Delta trounced on domestic, while United outperformed on International. Note that United grew capacity on Atlantic and Pacific while Delta shrunk it so UA didn't shrink into better yield there.
Wish I had full year yield 2013 by region, just have 4q where it was similar - big outperformance by Delta domestic, and inline to underperforming United international.
My read is...
- It looks like it's the short haul, domestic flyer driving the revenue softness. I am surprised the underperformance vs DL has not been more even across regions, which an exodus of Global Service passengers would drive. Doesn't appear the case with consistently competitive results for int'l.
- Something is up with regional. In 4Q yield was +3.8% for UA, +3.5% Delta. This quarter it was -6% UA, +0.1% Delta. Hard to say what weather did here as it is first to get cancelled and both saw deceleration, but UA much more than DL.
UA / DL yield % year over year 1Q2014
Domestic +0.3% / +5.3%
Atlantic +0.4%/ -0.3%
Pacific -4.0% / -5.4%
Latam -3.6% / -1.6%
Regional -6% / +0.1%
So Delta trounced on domestic, while United outperformed on International. Note that United grew capacity on Atlantic and Pacific while Delta shrunk it so UA didn't shrink into better yield there.
Wish I had full year yield 2013 by region, just have 4q where it was similar - big outperformance by Delta domestic, and inline to underperforming United international.
My read is...
- It looks like it's the short haul, domestic flyer driving the revenue softness. I am surprised the underperformance vs DL has not been more even across regions, which an exodus of Global Service passengers would drive. Doesn't appear the case with consistently competitive results for int'l.
- Something is up with regional. In 4Q yield was +3.8% for UA, +3.5% Delta. This quarter it was -6% UA, +0.1% Delta. Hard to say what weather did here as it is first to get cancelled and both saw deceleration, but UA much more than DL.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:21 am
#279
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Virginia, USA
Posts: 4,508
UPS also said weather events cost them $200 million, same as UAL DL, with different hubs said $90 million. These numbers don't seem to be out of line in comparison to other air transportation companies figures reported. Why do you insinuate that UA is overly interpreting their weather losses when others are reporting numbers, that when network size and locations are considered seem to be not out of line?
Apr 24, 2014, 6:24 am
#280
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
My read is...
- It looks like it's the short haul, domestic flyer driving the revenue softness. I am surprised the underperformance vs DL has not been more even across regions, which an exodus of Global Service passengers would drive.
- Something is up with regional. In 4Q yield was +3.8% for UA, +3.5% Delta. This quarter it was -6% UA, +0.1% Delta. Hard to say what weather did here as it is first to get cancelled and both saw deceleration, but UA much more than DL.
- It looks like it's the short haul, domestic flyer driving the revenue softness. I am surprised the underperformance vs DL has not been more even across regions, which an exodus of Global Service passengers would drive.
- Something is up with regional. In 4Q yield was +3.8% for UA, +3.5% Delta. This quarter it was -6% UA, +0.1% Delta. Hard to say what weather did here as it is first to get cancelled and both saw deceleration, but UA much more than DL.
One thing to keep in mind is that Delta's domestic yields are benefiting from rapid contraction in many domestic-only markets with expansion in other internationally-focused connecting markets (e.g. LAX, SEA) where the airline has significant discretion in allocating segment revenue between the international and domestic flight. Delta is under significant pressure from investors to show that its domestic market shift is working, and many think Delta is allocating a bit more revenue to the domestic segments on international trips, which is allowed and fully within its discretion, than normal. Delta has also rolled out E+ and made other pricing changes that are helping its domestic yields.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:27 am
#281
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta PlM, 1M
Posts: 6,363
UPS also said weather events cost them $200 million, same as UAL DL, with different hubs said $90 million. These numbers don't seem to be out of line in comparison to other air transportation companies figures reported. Why do you insinuate that UA is overly interpreting their weather losses when others are reporting numbers, that when network size and locations are considered seem to be not out of line?
UA reported a $200M hit to both revenue and earnings.
Perhaps UA did get hit twice as hard (no need to revisit that debate), but clearly DL did a better job of not having it all drop to the bottom line.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:30 am
#282
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
DL doesn't have a fuel cost problem. Look at fuel burn per Billion ASMs. DL has, on average, older aircraft but uses larger aircraft per departure and continues upgauging.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:37 am
#283
Join Date: Jul 2004
Programs: DL; AA; UA; CO; LHLX; NZ; QR; EK; BA
Posts: 7,408
Originally Posted by cerealmarketer
I always find the regional results most interesting...
UA / DL yield % year over year 1Q2014
Domestic +0.3% / +5.3%
Atlantic +0.4%/ -0.3%
Pacific -4.0% / -5.4%
Latam -3.6% / -1.6%
Regional -6% / +0.1%
So Delta trounced on domestic, while United outperformed on International. Note that United grew capacity on Atlantic and Pacific while Delta shrunk it so UA didn't shrink into better yield there..
UA / DL yield % year over year 1Q2014
Domestic +0.3% / +5.3%
Atlantic +0.4%/ -0.3%
Pacific -4.0% / -5.4%
Latam -3.6% / -1.6%
Regional -6% / +0.1%
So Delta trounced on domestic, while United outperformed on International. Note that United grew capacity on Atlantic and Pacific while Delta shrunk it so UA didn't shrink into better yield there..
UA / DL Unit Revenue % year-over-year 1Q 2014
Domestic +1.4% / +7.4%
Atlantic -3.4% / +0.5%
Pacific -6.3% / -5.0%
Latin -1.7% / -0.1%
Apr 24, 2014, 6:50 am
#284
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: ORD/MDW
Programs: BA/AA/AS/B6/WN/ UA/HH/MR and more like 'em but most felicitously & importantly MUCCI
Posts: 19,719
Yeah, this is terrible. The silver lining is that it ought to amp up investor pressure for change.
Astute -- the strategy has backfired of transferring so much domestic lift to less reliable regionals with woeful OT / canx numbers and crisis-level staffing problems.
It looks like it's the short haul, domestic flyer driving the revenue softness... Something is up with regional. In 4Q yield was +3.8% for UA, +3.5% Delta. This quarter it was -6% UA, +0.1% Delta. Hard to say what weather did here as it is first to get cancelled and both saw deceleration, but UA much more than DL.
Apr 24, 2014, 6:51 am
#285
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2012
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