Consolidated "Likelihood of clearing the wait list?" thread (International)
#31
Moderator, Omni, Omni/PR, Omni/Games, FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 67,136
Can anyone explain the rationale behind this? If I'm using miles + $$$ (and note, they have already charged my credit card), why would they drop me from the waitlist, "hopefully" return the $$$ + miles, and then let the BF seats fly empty? I thought United would want my $$$$?
I was in the same position for my ORD-FRA upgrade as of yesterday. Flight had over 22 business seats for sale, 25 hours before the flight, but my system wide did not clear. In speaking with agents this week, most were not helpful at all and told me that if it didn't clear before the 24-hour window, it would be handled at the airport.
I called in this morning - about 26-hours before the flight and connected with a very helpful agent out of Chicago. She had come clean stating that there is a known issue with the waitlist clearing in advance and that corporate had communicated to the 1K agents vis e-mail that if a 1K person called in and was waiting for an upgrade - they would be clearded to push it through if it was in a four (4) day window. She had to include a supervisor in the process, but they sucessfully upgraded my seat.
She went on to explain to me that a lot of 1K folks were missing their upgrades as the system was failing to do it automatically, as it is supposed to.
She went on to explain to me that a lot of 1K folks were missing their upgrades as the system was failing to do it automatically, as it is supposed to.
However, that R inventory still has to be there. It's not clear from your post, but it sounded like the agent thought that even with R = 0, they could force through an upgrade for a waitlisted 1K. I do not believe that was correct.
Yes, always good advice.
#32
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: ORD / DUB / LHR
Programs: UA 1K MM; BA Silver; Marriott Plat
Posts: 8,243
I used the mobile site to see the current booked load on the two flights, and can see the availability there. This, combined with the fact that the poster is using a GPU from a 1K member is what led me to believe that the chances are good.
#33
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: USA
Programs: UA 1K/*G, Hyatt Globalist, Bonvoy BS, Hertz & Avis Pres
Posts: 653
Available Cabins: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z4, ZN4, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9
Is one of these classes equivalent to "R"? What should I be watching?
Thanks.
Thanks.
Last edited by iluv2fly; Jun 27, 2012 at 11:34 am Reason: merge
#34
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: ORD / DUB / LHR
Programs: UA 1K MM; BA Silver; Marriott Plat
Posts: 8,243
What if there isn't even a "placeholder" for R inventory? For an international longhaul flight on a 2-cabin PMCO 777, my flight is showing the following (on united.com):
Available Cabins: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z4, ZN4, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9
Is one of these classes equivalent to "R"? What should I be watching?
Thanks.
Available Cabins: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z4, ZN4, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9
Is one of these classes equivalent to "R"? What should I be watching?
Thanks.
#35
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: USA
Programs: UA 1K/*G, Hyatt Globalist, Bonvoy BS, Hertz & Avis Pres
Posts: 653
#36
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: ORD / DUB / LHR
Programs: UA 1K MM; BA Silver; Marriott Plat
Posts: 8,243
#37
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 74
Likelihood of GPU clearing?
This is my first year as a United 1K. (Already have over 80,000 miles in 2012.) I have 6 Global Premier Upgrades but have never used any. I need to fly ORD-CDG-ORD Oct. 1-6. Before I decide about buying a coach class ticket (in a GPU-qualifying coach class rate) versus a business class ticket, is there any way to guess/estimate how likely it is that an upgrade to business class will come through? For example, based on how full business class looks on the nonstop flights at this point, about 3 weeks out? My company authorizes business class purchases but since I have a limited travel budget, I can take more trips if I can pay for coach on this trip and get upgraded.
If I understand correctly, I can get waitlisted on both outbound and return, and one or the other or none might come through. Since I wouldn't mind flying coach en route home during the day, but I'd really prefer to be in business for the overnight flight to Paris, is it worth considering purchasing business outbound and coach (with waitlisted upgrade) en route home?
Thanks to all you experts, I love this message board. Also apologies if this question about how to estimate likelihood is on the board, I searched but couldn't find it. Judy
If I understand correctly, I can get waitlisted on both outbound and return, and one or the other or none might come through. Since I wouldn't mind flying coach en route home during the day, but I'd really prefer to be in business for the overnight flight to Paris, is it worth considering purchasing business outbound and coach (with waitlisted upgrade) en route home?
Thanks to all you experts, I love this message board. Also apologies if this question about how to estimate likelihood is on the board, I searched but couldn't find it. Judy
#38
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: PSM
Posts: 69,232
The only way to know for certain is to see if you can confirm at booking. Other than that it is a gamble. Currently the dates in question do not have any upgrade inventory available, either on the non-stop or with connections.
Getting coach one way and biz the other may prove to be quite expensive; it may defeat the goal of saving some money and using the upgrade.
Good luck.
Getting coach one way and biz the other may prove to be quite expensive; it may defeat the goal of saving some money and using the upgrade.
Good luck.
#39
Join Date: Mar 2011
Programs: AA Platinum Pro, Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Exploralist, Marriot Silver
Posts: 2,065
It's really hard to estimate and depends on variable issues like day of the week and special events.
I and others like to book GPU-eligible fares only is upgrades can be confirmed upon booking (because the difference between that and a normal economy fare is often non-negligible). So, just check for R space while booking. United has made that a little more difficult now, so just check for Mileage Plus Upgrade space while booking.
I and others like to book GPU-eligible fares only is upgrades can be confirmed upon booking (because the difference between that and a normal economy fare is often non-negligible). So, just check for R space while booking. United has made that a little more difficult now, so just check for Mileage Plus Upgrade space while booking.
#40
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,645
This is my first year as a United 1K. (Already have over 80,000 miles in 2012.) I have 6 Global Premier Upgrades but have never used any. I need to fly ORD-CDG-ORD Oct. 1-6. Before I decide about buying a coach class ticket (in a GPU-qualifying coach class rate) versus a business class ticket, is there any way to guess/estimate how likely it is that an upgrade to business class will come through? For example, based on how full business class looks on the nonstop flights at this point, about 3 weeks out? My company authorizes business class purchases but since I have a limited travel budget, I can take more trips if I can pay for coach on this trip and get upgraded.
If I understand correctly, I can get waitlisted on both outbound and return, and one or the other or none might come through. Since I wouldn't mind flying coach en route home during the day, but I'd really prefer to be in business for the overnight flight to Paris, is it worth considering purchasing business outbound and coach (with waitlisted upgrade) en route home?
Thanks to all you experts, I love this message board. Also apologies if this question about how to estimate likelihood is on the board, I searched but couldn't find it. Judy
If I understand correctly, I can get waitlisted on both outbound and return, and one or the other or none might come through. Since I wouldn't mind flying coach en route home during the day, but I'd really prefer to be in business for the overnight flight to Paris, is it worth considering purchasing business outbound and coach (with waitlisted upgrade) en route home?
Thanks to all you experts, I love this message board. Also apologies if this question about how to estimate likelihood is on the board, I searched but couldn't find it. Judy
- Look at how many seats are open in business and coach to get an idea of load factors, also look at fare buckets (use ExpertFlyer) to see how many seats are open in each class (you'll have to study up on fare buckets).
- Others say the "seat map" idea is not a good idea, but it's served me fairly well before 3/3.
#41
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: PSM
Posts: 69,232
When you say it served you well do you mean you know that flights you didn't choose would not have cleared? Because otherwise you don't have nearly enough data to claim that just looking at the limited data you had was sufficient to reliably inform the decision IMO.
#42
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Havana, Cuba
Programs: AA EXP UA Gold QR Platinum Hilton Gold FB Sinbad
Posts: 125
Upgrade Clearing
I have used all my 6 for this year.. the last one used was yesterday
LHR -ORD, which cleared on the day I booked it. The others cleared closer to the time of the flight, about two weeks earlier iad-ord-iad
iah-nrt cleared quickly but nrt-sin did not . lax-hnl-gum also cleared.
on the 19th i have a Y flight IAD LHR, if someone wants to donate one of their systemwide upgrade, it would be gratefully acknowledged. will bring you a box of havana cigars! he he ...
Yesterdays flight from LHR as there are three flights lhr ord alone let alone to iah ewr etc... cdg is a bit dificult to get even though there are three daily cdg ewr flights
good luck
LHR -ORD, which cleared on the day I booked it. The others cleared closer to the time of the flight, about two weeks earlier iad-ord-iad
iah-nrt cleared quickly but nrt-sin did not . lax-hnl-gum also cleared.
on the 19th i have a Y flight IAD LHR, if someone wants to donate one of their systemwide upgrade, it would be gratefully acknowledged. will bring you a box of havana cigars! he he ...
Yesterdays flight from LHR as there are three flights lhr ord alone let alone to iah ewr etc... cdg is a bit dificult to get even though there are three daily cdg ewr flights
good luck
#43
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,645
When I say it served me well, I mean exactly what I said. It served me well.
By that, I mean that I had a very high success rate on upgrades, and I attribute that to choosing flights wisely.
Of course, I don't know what would have happened if I had flown on flights that I didn't take. Hard to even take that question seriously. If that shatters my credibility, then so be it. I doubt anyone else on this board can produce iron-clad statistics to describe everything that would have happened if they had taken flights that they didn't take.
[Personalized text edited by Moderator.] I'm sharing my experience, along with everyone else. OP can read it, take it in, and make a decision.
Last edited by Ocn Vw 1K; Sep 9, 2012 at 10:17 pm Reason: Per FT Rules.
#44
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 74
Thanks to those of you who responded (and to the moderators for putting my question in the correct thread). As I started to research fare buckets, I found this link http://boardingarea.com/blogs/freque...mation-online/ about how United is taking info on fares out of the websites that the public can view. Are you already aware of this, and will it affect everyone who's trying to check for upgrade likelihood? Judy
#45
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: PHL
Programs: AA platinum
Posts: 9
United recently messed up an award redemption from Europe in Mid July. My partner's reservation was never ticketed, and the award is no longer available. Our original flight—and the one I am still on—is a partner flight one stop, but United put him on an alternate flight with two stops. They put us on a "priority waiting list" for a nonstop flight on UA metal. The waitlist shows on both of our reservations, indicating that we are waiting for an I class fare to open up. What are the chances of that happening? There are still about 22 unbooked seats in united first on the flight.
This matters, not only because of convenience, but because the waitlisted flight leaves from a different city than we are currently booked from. Are there any further steps I can take with United to ensure this clears? Thanks!
This matters, not only because of convenience, but because the waitlisted flight leaves from a different city than we are currently booked from. Are there any further steps I can take with United to ensure this clears? Thanks!
Last edited by alamire; May 8, 2013 at 12:43 pm