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What would the effect of transatlantic LCCs be on legacy carrier?

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What would the effect of transatlantic LCCs be on legacy carrier?

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Old Aug 4, 2015, 8:10 am
  #31  
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So I assume Ryanair will keep its all 737 policy. So from Stanstead/Dublin logical it would be British Isles - KEF - NYC on 739 ETOPS ?
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 9:55 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by GRALISTAIR
So I assume Ryanair will keep its all 737 policy. So from Stanstead/Dublin logical it would be British Isles - KEF - NYC on 739 ETOPS ?
That pretty much sums up why LLC's wont do much to TATL fares.

One 737 on a route targeting mostly price conscious leisure customers isn't going to make ST, *A, or OW carriers lay awake at night.

ME3 carriers adding a dozen or more A380 routes from Europe to NA has them all on notice.
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 12:49 pm
  #33  
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Originally Posted by pinniped
Seatguru lists 'em at 31"-32". I'm not in position to actually fly them, so I'll just ask: what's so bad about their service?

The other thing no one has addressed is IROPS support. That's still a big advantage an alliance carrier has over anyone else. Over the years, I've had two TATL United and one American flight cancel, and all three times my total delay was in the 1-4 hour range because the airlines were able to reroute me fairly efficiently. (I had elite status in all cases - a critical factor, I'll admit.)

On an LCC, a cancel probably means a long delay...perhaps an entire day. How well would Norwegian react to a cancellation?
Their IRROPs handling is awful, and they have a very high frequency of long delays relative to the legacy majors, even those with only one or two flights a day to some of those DY-served US airports.

DY has had a big impact on mainland-mainland TATL fares for Scandinavia-US-Scandinavia/US-Scandinavia-US travel offered by the U.S. and EU legacy majors.
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 1:47 pm
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by pinniped
Seatguru lists 'em at 31"-32". I'm not in position to actually fly them, so I'll just ask: what's so bad about their service?

The other thing no one has addressed is IROPS support. That's still a big advantage an alliance carrier has over anyone else. Over the years, I've had two TATL United and one American flight cancel, and all three times my total delay was in the 1-4 hour range because the airlines were able to reroute me fairly efficiently. (I had elite status in all cases - a critical factor, I'll admit.)

On an LCC, a cancel probably means a long delay...perhaps an entire day. How well would Norwegian react to a cancellation?
I think for me, the IRROPS support is more of a factor than seat pitch (31-32" is OK for me) or a bag fee. Similar to your experiences, my TATL IRROPS with the alliance carriers have been fine (though granted I'm sure there are some exceptions). I'm not sure saving a C note is worth the risk of an extended delay on LCCs. Anecdotes I've read about Norwegian, for example, do not inspire confidence in their willingness or capability to handle IRROPS satisfactorily.

I suppose one day when I'm retired and have time to spare, I might be willing to risk an extended delay if funds are tight.
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 2:05 pm
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Originally Posted by GRALISTAIR
So I assume Ryanair will keep its all 737 policy. So from Stanstead/Dublin logical it would be British Isles - KEF - NYC on 739 ETOPS ?
They were talking about 787s but I believe they have dropped the idea for the moment.

I believe a stop at KEF would not be necessary as BA fly a dinky A318 TATL LCY to JFK. Extended range versions are fine and a 150 seater 95% full is more cost effective than a 350 seater 80% full.
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 2:10 pm
  #36  
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Back in the 60's and 70's, when I flew charter carriers from JFK to PARIS (usually ORLY), for the return you could never be sure that you'd return on the scheduled day; but to their credit, they paid for overnight hotels and food. I was in NO special hurry to get back as scheduled. If you could live with this uncertainty, the charters were a super deal.
Would LCCs be so nice?
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 2:54 pm
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Worcester
I believe a stop at KEF would not be necessary as BA fly a dinky A318 TATL LCY to JFK. Extended range versions are fine and a 150 seater 95% full is more cost effective than a 350 seater 80% full.
Aren't there a couple variants of the 737 that are ETOPS 180 certified? I know they are capable of flying to Hawaii, which I *think* entails a farther maximum possible diversion than TATL.

Perhaps some bigger A320-321 variants that could do it too...

Not that I'd *want* to fly a narrowbody across the Atlantic...
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 6:21 pm
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by Worcester
They were talking about 787s but I believe they have dropped the idea for the moment.

I believe a stop at KEF would not be necessary as BA fly a dinky A318 TATL LCY to JFK. Extended range versions are fine and a 150 seater 95% full is more cost effective than a 350 seater 80% full.
BA's LCY/JFK service is all business class, 32 seats according to SeatGuru. Fewer passengers means less weight, so the range is higher. Ryanair would be doing the opposite and shoving as many people as they can in the plane. I'm not sure if their 737s would be able to make it across the pond without falling into the ocean - which I'm sure Ryanair would charge you an "Unexpected cruise vacation" fee for.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 3:17 am
  #39  
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And part of Ryanair business model follows WN. All 737s mean 1 set of training, one set of spare parts etc, whcih keeps costs down. Start introducing other aircraft and it changes a whole lot of stuff.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 3:48 am
  #40  
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Originally Posted by pinniped
Aren't there a couple variants of the 737 that are ETOPS 180 certified? I know they are capable of flying to Hawaii, which I *think* entails a farther maximum possible diversion than TATL.

Perhaps some bigger A320-321 variants that could do it too...

Not that I'd *want* to fly a narrowbody across the Atlantic...
AA, DL and UA have flown me on 757s across the Atlantic. I'm not a fan of them, but I sometimes take them anyway.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 4:22 am
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I listened to a panel discussion between O'Leary and Tim Clark at a travel agency industry conference.

O'Leary would consider transatlantic but he pointed to the main factor he wasn't was that to make it profitable you'd need volume and there weren't enough planes available (he joked Tim Clark had bought them all up!).

He also said you would be stupid to avoid the business market and so would have some kind of premium cabin available.

Take those comments for what you will.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 5:38 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by GRALISTAIR
And part of Ryanair business model follows WN. All 737s mean 1 set of training, one set of spare parts etc, whcih keeps costs down. Start introducing other aircraft and it changes a whole lot of stuff.
They also follow the model of quick turn around times. A plane on the ground in KEF or YQX for a fuel stop is a plane that's not in the air making money.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 7:29 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by pinniped
Aren't there a couple variants of the 737 that are ETOPS 180 certified? I know they are capable of flying to Hawaii, which I *think* entails a farther maximum possible diversion than TATL.
You don't need ETOPS 180 for most TATL routes. ETOPS 120 would be more than enough in nearly every case:


The issue with the smaller planes is capacity and range. The A320 family doesn't have anything today which can go much beyond Eastern Canada to Ireland with a full load. Some 737s can go further but there are still limits. The proposed A320neoLR will, when they are produced, be akin to the 752s which are TATL-capable.

Last edited by sbm12; Aug 5, 2015 at 7:48 am
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