jaymar01

The worlds most recognizable airplane is on a death march.

http://qz.com/346436/the-slow-death-of-the-boeing-747/

nefelibata

Not yet.. I'm sure these planes will be sold to lower-capacity airlines, so let them live another 100 years

CPRich

I think aviation writers just put an annual tickler in their calendar to update and re-run this story.

2008
2009
2011
2012

etc

JDiver

Launch customer Lufthansa, iirc, already announced last year when they would be ridding themselves of their new 747-8s. Going to be freightliners, I'm sure, because that's where their popularity lies.

They could purchase a couple of gently "pre-owned" 747-8s from Lufti for the USAF VC-25A (presidential special air mission) aircraft and save the taxpayer a few dollars!

relangford

Maybe a better title would be "the slow death of 4-engined aircraft" in light of poor B747-8i sales as well as A380 sales stagnation.

lhgreengrd1

I'd say that 45+ years is still a pretty good run for a long haul commercial passenger jet.

shaner82

That's too bad. For a reason I can't explain, this is my favourite plane. I want to fly on it, but I don't travel often so the chances of me ever ending up in one of these planes is slim to none.

Sabai

Toss the A340 on the pile as well.

Koja78

A340 clearly will be the first to go

BuildingMyBento

Although my first experience on an A380 involved the EK shower, my more memorable inaugural was on an SQ 747 Megatop in 2000, LAX-NRT. It was the first time I entered a cockpit, and I think the majority of the flight was spent playing Super Tennis on their IFE.
(That was actually my only pleasant SQ flight, but that's another story.)

I also liked that JL had Y seating up top, so that was a bonus way back when.

KRSW

I think it's the death of wide body pax aircraft more than anything else. It's one thing to have an A320 flight 80% sold, it's another to have a 747/A380 80% sold.

The wide bodies just cost too much to run and have limited routes to which they could be profitable. In contrast an A320 can be used on just about every route, minus the ultra short hops where RJs make more sense.

The future is in greater ETOPS distance flights on smaller aircraft. I also envision airlines will be holding onto aircraft for shorter periods of time as they have in the past due to increasing efficiencies of new aircraft and pax demand for better interiors and better IFE.

Personally, the 747 is still my favorite commercial aircraft. Timeless styling, comfortable.

UltraRant

I' don't agree with you on all points.

We won't enter the age of the Jetsons soon. There are simply limitations to what is physically possible. Not only in terms of what an airport or ATC physically can handle, but also when it comes to how far a small bird can fly. Plus how much a human can take. I find it significantly much easier to sit for 9 hours in an B747 or A380 than in an B757, for example. At some point such a small aircraft just gets smaller and the air on board seems dead. Just have some fun and book the TK flight from IST to ULN. It's probably the longest flight in the world on a regular B738. I'll be on it later this year again and I wouldn't have done it I hadn't gotten a proper business class seat. Think of sitting on a short haul economy seat for 12 hours on end... There is a reason why for example SK offers their niche route SVG-IAH on a B737 private jet config with J class seating only. Ticket prices are in line with this.

I don't agree that the age of the widebody is over. The B787 and A350 are here to prove you wrong. I think in fact that we'll even start to see more widebodies on shorter routes in the future, as passenger demand will increase but physical capacities of airports and ATCs will not grow likewise. It already happens way too often that I'm in a plane on EWR or FRA for over half an hour, just waiting on the taxi lane before takeoff. Simply because we've reached some physical limits.

I do agree that the time for all aircraft smaller than the A380 with more than two engines is over. The 744 is outsmarted by Boeings own 777 (talk about destroying your own product with another one...), there are way too many alternatives for the A340 and the MD11 has already retired some time ago... I still have no clue of what Boeing tried to prove with the B748 for passenger traffic, but let's call it a fiasco. I do, however, foresee a great role for the B744 and B748 in cargo traffic, due to its unique design.

But the A380 is different. It's a monster of unequaled size. Airports had to be reconstructed to host it. It opened up new possibilities, gave way to thinking of new strategies in aviation. The amount of engines per passenger seats in those aircraft is over 1/3rd smaller than for example an A320. And apparently it's also pretty economic to operate per seat per km... The only thing is that operating such a huge bird also amplifies potential risks. That might be a potential showstopper in the current worldwide economic climate. I'm actually pretty certain that interest in this type of aircraft (or even the -900 and -1000) will be much greater again when the world economy is a bit more optimistic, just like in the era it was developed in...

For writing off aircraft in shorter periods of time... How are airlines getting that money back? Increase ticket prices? I can't imagine a short or mid term future in which aircraft also will become significantly much cheaper or easier disposable and the 'third world' of aviation will also be saturated with 'old' 'first world' aircraft at some point. There'll always be a calculated lifespan before an aircraft will be 'written off' for an airline and in all honesty, I don't see that getting reduced even more in comparison to what it is today...

To end with a positive note: we fully agree on the 747. It's a fantastic and characteristic design, symbol of an era in aviation and it would be tough to see this bird disappear.

N830MH

Yes, it's time to let it go.

Sheikh Yerbooty

It's only the second most comfortable commercial airliner currently plowing lonely furrows in the skies, why is it time to let it go?

tcook052

I understood the 340 is not as fuel efficient as other widebody aircraft such as the 777.

I've always enjoyed my time on 747's especially the relatively rare occasions when I've been in business class in the Upper Deck.