Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 994
Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
Guess out amenity kits will disappear again soon...
http://www.bangkokpost.net/Business/29Apr2008_biz28.php
Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA
Don't be too annoyed if check-in staff of Thai Airways International become less lenient about excess baggage, or your choice of meal is not available, or that water in the onboard washrooms may not be flowing steadily at the end of your journey.
With jet fuel prices skyrocketing, competition tough and a slowdown in air traffic looming, the national carrier is looking ''360 degrees'' for extensive cost reductions to allow it to fly through the turbulence.
Its fleet modernisation plan, involving the acquisition of 65 new aircraft, will also be reconsidered. Executives want to reassess how fuel efficient they are and whether newer models can offer more mileage for less fuel than those planned earlier.
THAI may even have to downsize the number of aircraft it plans to acquire due to the slowdown in traffic demand triggered by the decline in the world economy. It wants to replace its older jets, many of which are more than 20 years old.
The airline may add to its existing order for six Airbus A380 superjumbos, opting for Boeing 747-8s, and 23 smaller planes, such as 787s or A350s and 20 single-aisle Airbus A320s.
''With the relentless increase in oil prices, we must look at every angle, big and small, to survive this heavy cost pressure and stay afloat in such a hostile operating environment,'' said Pandit Chanapai, executive vice-president for commercial affairs at THAI.
The contribution of fuel to the airline's total operating costs has now jumped to 35%, up from 30% previously. The percentage looks set to grow even further on projections that crude oil prices could spiral to US$150 a barrel in the future from close to $120 at the moment.
The carrier's fuel bill for this year will likely rise to more than 80 billion baht, according to senior executives.
Mr Pandit noted that the new fuel surcharges that took effect yesterday barely kept pace with the rising fuel price and covered only half of the actual increase since the airline did not want to pass on the entire burden all at once to passengers to avoid a negative impact on its business.
''Between April 11, when we informed agents of a fuel surcharge increase, and last Friday, jet fuel prices rose by about $5 a barrel to $130. We don't know where [oil price increases] are going to end,'' he noted.
The airline also sees the need to discuss the cost pressure with its 20,000-plus staff and urgently to address the existing critical problems, Mr Pandit said.
He declined to say whether THAI's manpower, said to be excessive, need to be trimmed. Instead, he said, the productivity per head needs to be improved.
Its long-haul flights, which consume so much fuel, will come under closer scrutiny with regard to yield generation.
The executive said the frequency of its non-stop daily flights from Bangkok to Los Angeles may be trimmed with routes changed. It may make a stopover in Japan in order to optimise yields, rather than dropping the Bangkok-Los Angeles flights altogether.
Routes with high traffic demand and those that offer potential will be given greater priority in terms of aircraft capacity allocation and frequencies.
For instance, THAI has since March 29 stepped up the frequency for the Bangkok-Bangalore route to 10 flights a week from seven previously.
Other cost controls will be enforced. The allowance for checked baggage will be strictly enforced: 20 kg for economy class, with no more than five kg extra permitted. It will charge for excess luggage. The inflight food will also undergo optimisation management to get rid of wastage and reduce weight, which contributes to higher aircraft fuel consumption.Even the volume of water in the aircraft toilets will come under tight control _ barely meeting international standards _ in order to shed some weight on the aircraft.
Fares will be allowed to rise to make up for higher costs and the airline's sales and marketing strategies will need to be sharpened and made competitive with other players, added Mr Pandit.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/Business/29Apr2008_biz28.php
Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA
Don't be too annoyed if check-in staff of Thai Airways International become less lenient about excess baggage, or your choice of meal is not available, or that water in the onboard washrooms may not be flowing steadily at the end of your journey.
With jet fuel prices skyrocketing, competition tough and a slowdown in air traffic looming, the national carrier is looking ''360 degrees'' for extensive cost reductions to allow it to fly through the turbulence.
Its fleet modernisation plan, involving the acquisition of 65 new aircraft, will also be reconsidered. Executives want to reassess how fuel efficient they are and whether newer models can offer more mileage for less fuel than those planned earlier.
THAI may even have to downsize the number of aircraft it plans to acquire due to the slowdown in traffic demand triggered by the decline in the world economy. It wants to replace its older jets, many of which are more than 20 years old.
The airline may add to its existing order for six Airbus A380 superjumbos, opting for Boeing 747-8s, and 23 smaller planes, such as 787s or A350s and 20 single-aisle Airbus A320s.
''With the relentless increase in oil prices, we must look at every angle, big and small, to survive this heavy cost pressure and stay afloat in such a hostile operating environment,'' said Pandit Chanapai, executive vice-president for commercial affairs at THAI.
The contribution of fuel to the airline's total operating costs has now jumped to 35%, up from 30% previously. The percentage looks set to grow even further on projections that crude oil prices could spiral to US$150 a barrel in the future from close to $120 at the moment.
The carrier's fuel bill for this year will likely rise to more than 80 billion baht, according to senior executives.
Mr Pandit noted that the new fuel surcharges that took effect yesterday barely kept pace with the rising fuel price and covered only half of the actual increase since the airline did not want to pass on the entire burden all at once to passengers to avoid a negative impact on its business.
''Between April 11, when we informed agents of a fuel surcharge increase, and last Friday, jet fuel prices rose by about $5 a barrel to $130. We don't know where [oil price increases] are going to end,'' he noted.
The airline also sees the need to discuss the cost pressure with its 20,000-plus staff and urgently to address the existing critical problems, Mr Pandit said.
He declined to say whether THAI's manpower, said to be excessive, need to be trimmed. Instead, he said, the productivity per head needs to be improved.
Its long-haul flights, which consume so much fuel, will come under closer scrutiny with regard to yield generation.
The executive said the frequency of its non-stop daily flights from Bangkok to Los Angeles may be trimmed with routes changed. It may make a stopover in Japan in order to optimise yields, rather than dropping the Bangkok-Los Angeles flights altogether.
Routes with high traffic demand and those that offer potential will be given greater priority in terms of aircraft capacity allocation and frequencies.
For instance, THAI has since March 29 stepped up the frequency for the Bangkok-Bangalore route to 10 flights a week from seven previously.
Other cost controls will be enforced. The allowance for checked baggage will be strictly enforced: 20 kg for economy class, with no more than five kg extra permitted. It will charge for excess luggage. The inflight food will also undergo optimisation management to get rid of wastage and reduce weight, which contributes to higher aircraft fuel consumption.Even the volume of water in the aircraft toilets will come under tight control _ barely meeting international standards _ in order to shed some weight on the aircraft.
Fares will be allowed to rise to make up for higher costs and the airline's sales and marketing strategies will need to be sharpened and made competitive with other players, added Mr Pandit.
Last edited by moocherx; Apr 28, 2008 at 11:10 pm
#2
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: ATL
Programs: DL SkyMiles PM/2MM, AA Plat, IC Diam. Amb., Peninsula regular, amanjunkie
Posts: 5,848
I hope this doesn't signal the end of the New York Express. I'm booked to take it in November, and my plans really aren't very flexible-- even a change in operating days of the week would be bad for me.
Keep the New York Express!
Keep the New York Express!
#3
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Tokyo, Khun Han (Thailand) & Brussels
Programs: SQ silver, NH, TG
Posts: 1,280
Guess out amenity kits will disappear again soon...
http://www.bangkokpost.net/Business/29Apr2008_biz28.php
Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA
Don't be too annoyed if check-in staff of Thai Airways International become less lenient about excess baggage, or your choice of meal is not available, or that water in the onboard washrooms may not be flowing steadily at the end of your journey.
With jet fuel prices skyrocketing, competition tough and a slowdown in air traffic looming, the national carrier is looking ''360 degrees'' for extensive cost reductions to allow it to fly through the turbulence.
Its fleet modernisation plan, involving the acquisition of 65 new aircraft, will also be reconsidered. Executives want to reassess how fuel efficient they are and whether newer models can offer more mileage for less fuel than those planned earlier.
THAI may even have to downsize the number of aircraft it plans to acquire due to the slowdown in traffic demand triggered by the decline in the world economy. It wants to replace its older jets, many of which are more than 20 years old.
The airline may add to its existing order for six Airbus A380 superjumbos, opting for Boeing 747-8s, and 23 smaller planes, such as 787s or A350s and 20 single-aisle Airbus A320s.
''With the relentless increase in oil prices, we must look at every angle, big and small, to survive this heavy cost pressure and stay afloat in such a hostile operating environment,'' said Pandit Chanapai, executive vice-president for commercial affairs at THAI.
The contribution of fuel to the airline's total operating costs has now jumped to 35%, up from 30% previously. The percentage looks set to grow even further on projections that crude oil prices could spiral to US$150 a barrel in the future from close to $120 at the moment.
The carrier's fuel bill for this year will likely rise to more than 80 billion baht, according to senior executives.
Mr Pandit noted that the new fuel surcharges that took effect yesterday barely kept pace with the rising fuel price and covered only half of the actual increase since the airline did not want to pass on the entire burden all at once to passengers to avoid a negative impact on its business.
''Between April 11, when we informed agents of a fuel surcharge increase, and last Friday, jet fuel prices rose by about $5 a barrel to $130. We don't know where [oil price increases] are going to end,'' he noted.
The airline also sees the need to discuss the cost pressure with its 20,000-plus staff and urgently to address the existing critical problems, Mr Pandit said.
He declined to say whether THAI's manpower, said to be excessive, need to be trimmed. Instead, he said, the productivity per head needs to be improved.
Its long-haul flights, which consume so much fuel, will come under closer scrutiny with regard to yield generation.
The executive said the frequency of its non-stop daily flights from Bangkok to Los Angeles may be trimmed with routes changed. It may make a stopover in Japan in order to optimise yields, rather than dropping the Bangkok-Los Angeles flights altogether.
Routes with high traffic demand and those that offer potential will be given greater priority in terms of aircraft capacity allocation and frequencies.
For instance, THAI has since March 29 stepped up the frequency for the Bangkok-Bangalore route to 10 flights a week from seven previously.
Other cost controls will be enforced. The allowance for checked baggage will be strictly enforced: 20 kg for economy class, with no more than five kg extra permitted. It will charge for excess luggage. The inflight food will also undergo optimisation management to get rid of wastage and reduce weight, which contributes to higher aircraft fuel consumption.Even the volume of water in the aircraft toilets will come under tight control _ barely meeting international standards _ in order to shed some weight on the aircraft.
Fares will be allowed to rise to make up for higher costs and the airline's sales and marketing strategies will need to be sharpened and made competitive with other players, added Mr Pandit.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/Business/29Apr2008_biz28.php
Thai Airways tightens belt as fuel costs soar
BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA
Don't be too annoyed if check-in staff of Thai Airways International become less lenient about excess baggage, or your choice of meal is not available, or that water in the onboard washrooms may not be flowing steadily at the end of your journey.
With jet fuel prices skyrocketing, competition tough and a slowdown in air traffic looming, the national carrier is looking ''360 degrees'' for extensive cost reductions to allow it to fly through the turbulence.
Its fleet modernisation plan, involving the acquisition of 65 new aircraft, will also be reconsidered. Executives want to reassess how fuel efficient they are and whether newer models can offer more mileage for less fuel than those planned earlier.
THAI may even have to downsize the number of aircraft it plans to acquire due to the slowdown in traffic demand triggered by the decline in the world economy. It wants to replace its older jets, many of which are more than 20 years old.
The airline may add to its existing order for six Airbus A380 superjumbos, opting for Boeing 747-8s, and 23 smaller planes, such as 787s or A350s and 20 single-aisle Airbus A320s.
''With the relentless increase in oil prices, we must look at every angle, big and small, to survive this heavy cost pressure and stay afloat in such a hostile operating environment,'' said Pandit Chanapai, executive vice-president for commercial affairs at THAI.
The contribution of fuel to the airline's total operating costs has now jumped to 35%, up from 30% previously. The percentage looks set to grow even further on projections that crude oil prices could spiral to US$150 a barrel in the future from close to $120 at the moment.
The carrier's fuel bill for this year will likely rise to more than 80 billion baht, according to senior executives.
Mr Pandit noted that the new fuel surcharges that took effect yesterday barely kept pace with the rising fuel price and covered only half of the actual increase since the airline did not want to pass on the entire burden all at once to passengers to avoid a negative impact on its business.
''Between April 11, when we informed agents of a fuel surcharge increase, and last Friday, jet fuel prices rose by about $5 a barrel to $130. We don't know where [oil price increases] are going to end,'' he noted.
The airline also sees the need to discuss the cost pressure with its 20,000-plus staff and urgently to address the existing critical problems, Mr Pandit said.
He declined to say whether THAI's manpower, said to be excessive, need to be trimmed. Instead, he said, the productivity per head needs to be improved.
Its long-haul flights, which consume so much fuel, will come under closer scrutiny with regard to yield generation.
The executive said the frequency of its non-stop daily flights from Bangkok to Los Angeles may be trimmed with routes changed. It may make a stopover in Japan in order to optimise yields, rather than dropping the Bangkok-Los Angeles flights altogether.
Routes with high traffic demand and those that offer potential will be given greater priority in terms of aircraft capacity allocation and frequencies.
For instance, THAI has since March 29 stepped up the frequency for the Bangkok-Bangalore route to 10 flights a week from seven previously.
Other cost controls will be enforced. The allowance for checked baggage will be strictly enforced: 20 kg for economy class, with no more than five kg extra permitted. It will charge for excess luggage. The inflight food will also undergo optimisation management to get rid of wastage and reduce weight, which contributes to higher aircraft fuel consumption.Even the volume of water in the aircraft toilets will come under tight control _ barely meeting international standards _ in order to shed some weight on the aircraft.
Fares will be allowed to rise to make up for higher costs and the airline's sales and marketing strategies will need to be sharpened and made competitive with other players, added Mr Pandit.
Air traffic shows steady increase across country (Thailand)
International passengers through BKK rose 9.9% to 9.34 million (1st quarter)
Is TG missing something ?
#4
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Del Ray, Alexandria, Virginia
Programs: KE Skypass, Morning Calm
Posts: 1,655
For starters, I would recommend halving the amount of silverware accompanying each meal on the US-BKK nonstops. At present it's got to be at least a kilo per meal per passenger.
#5
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: KKC/TPA
Programs: All statuses lapsed; now I'm just a free-agent, and loving it!
Posts: 1,245
The Bangkok Post article is interesting that it singles out the Los Angeles route, but doesn't mention the New York route. Does that mean something, or are both routes subject to changes in frequency or adding stops?
I could live with either route adding a stop, but if they do, I hope they keep the A340-500 aircraft on the route, and with the same seat configuration. My biggest fear is that THAI would change to another aircraft, (or reconfigure the A340-500s) and go with the tighter seat pitch in coach and eliminate Premium Economy.
I need some extra room on a trip of that length! I can't justify the big price jump from economy to Business class, but I can justify the cost of Premium Economy, and will gladly pay for it.
My biggest fear is that THAI doesn't seem to appreciate and promote the Premium Economy product they have. Why haven't they expanded it to other long haul flights? Why didn't they choose to offer it on the A380's? If ever there were a place to easily offer that product, it would be on the long haul A380.
#6
Join Date: May 2005
Location: UK
Programs: ROP *G, BAEC Gold, HH Lifetime Diamond
Posts: 969
Agree^. Better designed ones would be better however I wouldn't want to see those transparent plastic ones coming back.
#7
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Del Ray, Alexandria, Virginia
Programs: KE Skypass, Morning Calm
Posts: 1,655
No, I don't want to see a return to plastic either. But the current silverware is HEAVY, and I'm more than willing to use the same fork for the entry and salad or knife for cutting and buttering.
#8
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 994
If Thai put up their prices a little, but improved their product to a higher quality level, they could kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
I would imagine (and by that, I mean I KNOW!) that as Thai is a... well... Thai government-style organisation, the savings are never going to be made as the internal workings of the company will of course be over-staffed, highly wasteful, and a perfect example of corporate inefficiency.
A knife and fork less isn't the issue (and I prefer to change cutlery for the course, thanks!) =P
I would imagine (and by that, I mean I KNOW!) that as Thai is a... well... Thai government-style organisation, the savings are never going to be made as the internal workings of the company will of course be over-staffed, highly wasteful, and a perfect example of corporate inefficiency.
A knife and fork less isn't the issue (and I prefer to change cutlery for the course, thanks!) =P
#9
Join Date: May 2005
Location: UK
Programs: ROP *G, BAEC Gold, HH Lifetime Diamond
Posts: 969
Oh yes it is- every single gram counts. I remember watching a documentary on Discovery about American Airlines how expert calculated how much fuel they would save by cutting down the inflight magazine from seat pockets. I would say the cutlery on the B747/B777 on TG is at least 20% heavier than those found on the A380/B747 on SQ (just tried all 4 last week ).
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 994
Oh yes it is- every single gram counts. I remember watching a documentary on Discovery about American Airlines how expert calculated how much fuel they would save by cutting down the inflight magazine from seat pockets. I would say the cutlery on the B747/B777 on TG is at least 20% heavier than those found on the A380/B747 on SQ (just tried all 4 last week ).
#11
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: ROC;SIN
Programs: ROP
Posts: 426
Well, the US dollar has been dropping relentlessly as well. I'm sure that makes up at least for some of it, since jet fuel is priced in dollars.
I can live with the 2 US routes making a stop somewhere to refuel, if that makes economic sense. I'm sure they could serve meals during that time or something. However, care must be taken to make sure that passengers don't roast or suffocate in the plane.
Removing anemity kits is a really bad idea anyway. It would probably save a few dollars per pax. How many people notice that few bucks when buying a thousand dollar ticket? In J or F, that is not even an appreciable percentage of the fare. However, such a gesture would surely be impressed upon the travelers, perhaps improving brand loyalty.
I can live with the 2 US routes making a stop somewhere to refuel, if that makes economic sense. I'm sure they could serve meals during that time or something. However, care must be taken to make sure that passengers don't roast or suffocate in the plane.
Removing anemity kits is a really bad idea anyway. It would probably save a few dollars per pax. How many people notice that few bucks when buying a thousand dollar ticket? In J or F, that is not even an appreciable percentage of the fare. However, such a gesture would surely be impressed upon the travelers, perhaps improving brand loyalty.
#13
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: ATL
Programs: DL SkyMiles PM/2MM, AA Plat, IC Diam. Amb., Peninsula regular, amanjunkie
Posts: 5,848
I don't know all the particulars, but here's a guess:
The article mentioned having the LA route stop in Japan because TG already has rights to do that and, before getting the A345, it did fly BKK-KIX-LAX. I think that was an underperforming route, but in part because they were using a very old hard-product, not the most recent ones. Anyway, I wonder whether TG could do the same on a JFK route. I doubt they could stop anywhere that makes economic sense. Stopping in Japan could be very ineffecient, especially on JFK-BKK where the great circle route goes over Greenland and the heart of Siberia, and forcing it to put down in Japan would mean flying into a lot more headwinds and would eliminate the possibility of riding tailwinds across the Atlantic and Europe. And I don't think stopping Europe would make much sense either, as it would make BKK-JFK very inefficient by forcing it to fly into headwinds the whole way. (Does TG even have Fifth Freedom rights anywhere in Europe?) The positions of BKK and JFK on the globe seem to make it a very good route for encircling the globe without stopping, pushed on tailwinds the whole way and never flying into headwinds. LAX doesn't have quite the same advantage. Note that when maintenance requires TG to make a stop on its ULH services, it has the LAX flight stop in Japan with an A346. So for those reasons, I'm hoping the New York Express would be retained.
Some more rumors here: A345's have crap resale value. That is thought to be one of the reasons SQ didn't unload its A345's in favor of the 777-200LR. So if TG can't sell 'em, they might as well try and get some value by using them for the intended purpose: ULH nonstops to USA.
I agree that the best way to save TG some money is to get rid of the political meddling and trim the fat from chronic overstaffing and underutilization of employees. Classic example of a government-controlled enterprise's troubles competing in a highly competitive industry.
The article mentioned having the LA route stop in Japan because TG already has rights to do that and, before getting the A345, it did fly BKK-KIX-LAX. I think that was an underperforming route, but in part because they were using a very old hard-product, not the most recent ones. Anyway, I wonder whether TG could do the same on a JFK route. I doubt they could stop anywhere that makes economic sense. Stopping in Japan could be very ineffecient, especially on JFK-BKK where the great circle route goes over Greenland and the heart of Siberia, and forcing it to put down in Japan would mean flying into a lot more headwinds and would eliminate the possibility of riding tailwinds across the Atlantic and Europe. And I don't think stopping Europe would make much sense either, as it would make BKK-JFK very inefficient by forcing it to fly into headwinds the whole way. (Does TG even have Fifth Freedom rights anywhere in Europe?) The positions of BKK and JFK on the globe seem to make it a very good route for encircling the globe without stopping, pushed on tailwinds the whole way and never flying into headwinds. LAX doesn't have quite the same advantage. Note that when maintenance requires TG to make a stop on its ULH services, it has the LAX flight stop in Japan with an A346. So for those reasons, I'm hoping the New York Express would be retained.
Some more rumors here: A345's have crap resale value. That is thought to be one of the reasons SQ didn't unload its A345's in favor of the 777-200LR. So if TG can't sell 'em, they might as well try and get some value by using them for the intended purpose: ULH nonstops to USA.
I agree that the best way to save TG some money is to get rid of the political meddling and trim the fat from chronic overstaffing and underutilization of employees. Classic example of a government-controlled enterprise's troubles competing in a highly competitive industry.
#14
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Houston, Tx /SE Asia
Programs: UA 1K 3MM
Posts: 266
Before KIX/NRT TG stopped @ SEL. The LAX-KIX flights had a very early arrival at KIX, about 3a IIRC. Quite a few business people in C commented to me that they liked the flight bec they could get to Osaka for a meeting and then catch a flight out that night. Sounds like a hard day to me.
Later they pulled the night flights & newer equipment & began day flights that stopped at KIX or NRT depending on the day. The C class at that time had awful seats & I quit flying TG.
In any case, I'd prefer a stop somewhere. I'd rather lose a few hours for a chance to walk around. The A345 are fine with me. Their premium economy looks to be the best around. It's curious that they don't do more to promote it.
Later they pulled the night flights & newer equipment & began day flights that stopped at KIX or NRT depending on the day. The C class at that time had awful seats & I quit flying TG.
In any case, I'd prefer a stop somewhere. I'd rather lose a few hours for a chance to walk around. The A345 are fine with me. Their premium economy looks to be the best around. It's curious that they don't do more to promote it.
#15
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: KKC/TPA
Programs: All statuses lapsed; now I'm just a free-agent, and loving it!
Posts: 1,245
I don't know all the particulars, but here's a guess:
The article mentioned having the LA route stop in Japan because TG already has rights to do that and, before getting the A345, it did fly BKK-KIX-LAX. I think that was an underperforming route, but in part because they were using a very old hard-product, not the most recent ones. Anyway, I wonder whether TG could do the same on a JFK route. I doubt they could stop anywhere that makes economic sense. Stopping in Japan could be very ineffecient, especially on JFK-BKK where the great circle route goes over Greenland and the heart of Siberia, and forcing it to put down in Japan would mean flying into a lot more headwinds and would eliminate the possibility of riding tailwinds across the Atlantic and Europe. And I don't think stopping Europe would make much sense either, as it would make BKK-JFK very inefficient by forcing it to fly into headwinds the whole way. (Does TG even have Fifth Freedom rights anywhere in Europe?) The positions of BKK and JFK on the globe seem to make it a very good route for encircling the globe without stopping, pushed on tailwinds the whole way and never flying into headwinds. LAX doesn't have quite the same advantage. Note that when maintenance requires TG to make a stop on its ULH services, it has the LAX flight stop in Japan with an A346. So for those reasons, I'm hoping the New York Express would be retained.
Some more rumors here: A345's have crap resale value. That is thought to be one of the reasons SQ didn't unload its A345's in favor of the 777-200LR. So if TG can't sell 'em, they might as well try and get some value by using them for the intended purpose: ULH nonstops to USA.
The article mentioned having the LA route stop in Japan because TG already has rights to do that and, before getting the A345, it did fly BKK-KIX-LAX. I think that was an underperforming route, but in part because they were using a very old hard-product, not the most recent ones. Anyway, I wonder whether TG could do the same on a JFK route. I doubt they could stop anywhere that makes economic sense. Stopping in Japan could be very ineffecient, especially on JFK-BKK where the great circle route goes over Greenland and the heart of Siberia, and forcing it to put down in Japan would mean flying into a lot more headwinds and would eliminate the possibility of riding tailwinds across the Atlantic and Europe. And I don't think stopping Europe would make much sense either, as it would make BKK-JFK very inefficient by forcing it to fly into headwinds the whole way. (Does TG even have Fifth Freedom rights anywhere in Europe?) The positions of BKK and JFK on the globe seem to make it a very good route for encircling the globe without stopping, pushed on tailwinds the whole way and never flying into headwinds. LAX doesn't have quite the same advantage. Note that when maintenance requires TG to make a stop on its ULH services, it has the LAX flight stop in Japan with an A346. So for those reasons, I'm hoping the New York Express would be retained.
Some more rumors here: A345's have crap resale value. That is thought to be one of the reasons SQ didn't unload its A345's in favor of the 777-200LR. So if TG can't sell 'em, they might as well try and get some value by using them for the intended purpose: ULH nonstops to USA.