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what's the secret to booking on oversold flights?

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Old Oct 25, 2003, 11:49 am
  #1  
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what's the secret to booking on oversold flights?

What's the secret to booking on oversold fllights?
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 11:54 am
  #2  
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Being lucky

Or in other words being at the right place at the right time.

[This message has been edited by magic111 (edited 10-25-2003).]
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 12:45 pm
  #3  
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i echo being lucky. very few flights need volunteers. (boy, you are ALL about the bump....all of your posts are 'bout bumping.)
if you are going to obsess about something like bumping, i would suggest the lottery or roulette, also.
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 1:00 pm
  #4  
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Use common sense. Business destinations at peak times, leisure destination on holiday weekends, special events, etc.

At the same time there's no guarantees. On a recent EWR-ATL on a Friday night (peak business flight) that was well oversold, air traffic delays into EWR caused enough misconnects that all standbys were accommodated and all Elites were upgraded.

So even carefully planned situations can backfire. At the same time, be prepared when you least expect it. An earlier cancellation can take an otherwise normal-looking flight and turn it into an oversold situation just a few hours before departure.

Also, make sure you know your backup plans. On an ORD-MSP this week that was over, actively seeking volunteers, NWA wouldn't take us because there were no alternatives into our final destination on NW that day. Instead they were looking for MSP-bound pax only. I suppose if things got hairy and they needed many more volunteers, they might have taken us, but for the 5 or 6 they did need, it wasn't worth reaccomodation on another carrier.

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Old Oct 25, 2003, 7:00 pm
  #5  
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Keep buying seats on the flight until they won't sell any more.

At least one bump should result.
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 8:26 pm
  #6  
 
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The problem with Spiff's solution is that the TSA will probably hold up one of your reservations long enough for it to miss the flight and you will not be bumped.
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 10:29 pm
  #7  
 
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Fly on airline award blackout days. Fly friday evening and sunday evening, make lots of connections, and don't fly jungle jets.

But most importantly be smarter than the airline's computer.

I disagree with the comments about rarity and like a lottery. With good planning you can easily parlay bumps into perpetual almost free travel.

I recently took a bump run that paid 12 times the airfare I paid (excluding taxes)
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 10:38 pm
  #8  
 
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You want to be bumped. One word COMDEX. Best odds from anywhere to Vegas. Plus once you get to Vegas you can really gamble. Place your bet soon..oops I mean place your reservation soon since the show is starting soon.
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 11:24 pm
  #9  
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As much as I appreciate the roulette comment I do think that there is a little more than luck involved... On my last round trip flight I got bumped once on the way out and four times on the way back. I'll figure it out one day!
Tough loss for the Yanks tonight, eh?
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Old Oct 25, 2003, 11:25 pm
  #10  
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Thank-you Mr. Crump! Please describe more about that particular flight.
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Old Oct 26, 2003, 7:14 am
  #11  
 
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If you are interested in recreation destinations, it can pay to check your local school schedule. Things like spring break/Thanksgiving/Christmas vacation funnel families into certain peak periods (and also reduce the competition from other passengers wanting to volunteer their seats- try telling a 2nd grader you are going to miss a day at Disney World!).

My all time favorite days to get bumped (drum roll please)... my state's educational association week. Unlike spring break, where different school districts may observe different weeks, ALL schools are out during the state educational association meeting, even private schools. Good opportunity to be bumped, at least if you fly the Friday night/Saturday before, and return the Saturday/Sunday after this week.

Last week my family of three got 3 vouchers and one free round trip ticket using this strategy (we could have made more, but I had to turn down a chance for all of us to be bumped into the following day (Monday).

Still, it IS a matter of luck. I would recommend choosing a destination that you would like to see anyway, so you won't be disappointed if/when you don't get bumped.

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Old Oct 26, 2003, 9:28 am
  #12  
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I would chime in for the last days of particular holiday weekends.. so, for this year:

Sunday, November 30th
Sunday, December 28th

and then, of course
Sunday, January 4th

Of course, not all flights on these dates will be oversold.. but then you have to get creative... that is, think where people are mostly likely to go. Season, holiday, location.. So, for example:

*for the end of New Year's weekend, flights out of NYC will be crowded.. as well as london, paris.. also, people at ski resorts will be coming back home. RNO-ORD on AA is always packed around this time, since AA has the only nonstop to Chicago..

Use all your resources if you want to find the best bump flights. I wouldn't just rely solely on this board.




[This message has been edited by izzik (edited 10-26-2003).]
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Old Oct 26, 2003, 10:17 am
  #13  
 
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I have this particular bump run that I fly on a regular basis for no other reason than to collect bumps. Very simular to the mileage run others do. But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.

The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes. Sometimes I take a baby under 2 yrs old and pay for the extra seat, other times I take a friend and on occasion I have been able to use free companion certificates.

I try to book a year in advance while the fare buckets are open. This also helps with being able to change flights because when the winter schedules are changed you have a little flexabilty because the airline needs to change your schedule and you can move to the heaviest flights regardless of low fare bucket availability.

I always book my arrival Hotel and rental cars for seperate days so I don't loose the reservations if I am a no show. Hotels on special event days are expensive so its best to drive an hour to the next town, bring a tent or consider a hostel. I am tempted to park an RV in my bump run town but I haven't figured out the airport transfer and storage.

It takes a huge amount of time to figure out what where an event city with an airline that bumps a lot fitting the above requirements is. Study events, study low fare markets, study the time of day those flights sell out on galileo and let the obsession begin.

The one thing that makes this process luck is that the airlines computer system has all the data to prevent you from figuring out when and where a bump will occur. Their system computes the exact number of seats they can oversell without causing a bump based on the factors they can determine lead to bumps and prior experience. But as with any computer program there are weaknesses and you are trying to guess what those may be. By making triple connections you should be able to overcome the odds. This is the one area I am suprised no FTer or former airline employee has shed much light on. Can we have a former airine computer programer post some code here?


Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.

It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.

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Old Oct 26, 2003, 1:27 pm
  #14  
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.

The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes. Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.

It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.

</font>
although i am skeptical, i like what your post has to say...the parts i understand. above are some of the sentences in which i am baffled. but, i think i get the gist of your post, for the most part.
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Old Oct 26, 2003, 7:24 pm
  #15  
 
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
although i am skeptical, i like what your post has to say...the parts i understand. above are some of the sentences in which i am baffled. but, i think i get the gist of your post, for the most part.</font>
I was responding to the poster asking for additional details about my previous post. As far as skeptacism I can understand. You can't imagine the amount of time I have put into figuring out bumps. I've done bump runs since the early 80's. So If you haven't invested the time and mental energy into what I see as a competition (the airline makes the rules and I play the game) I can understand the skeptacism.

I even bought a 30 day pass once and spent the whole 30 days mindlessly flying for bumps. I used the bump passes from that trip to fly free for the next year and the bumps I got during that year continued provided bump runs for future years.

I'll try to explain the lines you question


But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.


I was referring to the fact as others have that going to a city where an event "Mardi Gras, Superbowl, Comdex etc.." is going on increases your chances and by staying for the event you get the heavy flights going in and coming out. Also Mileage runners don't go to enjoy something at the destination. I do and I think it adds to the trip.


The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes.


The poster asked about a run that paid 12 times the airfare in bump compensation and I was giving him the parameters I used for selecting that run.


Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.


This was just a dumb comment I made about how hard it is to get your wife to take a bump. Several post comment on how obsessed the poster is about bumping I guess I tried to be funny and failed.


It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.


Seems self explanitory as a response to the secret of how to do bumps. Some people hate a day in the airport. It is possible to make it productive.

Good luck in your bump quest. Some people see bumps as the icing on the cake. I see them as a lot more.

Maybee it's time for someone to start a bump primer on FT.
jerry crump is offline  


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