Jan 27, 2015, 11:50 am
Last edit by: dstan
Winter Storm Juno Transportation Status
Please see the following websites for the latest information:
MTA Buses, Subways, LIRR, Metro-North, Bridges & Tunnels: http://alert.mta.info/
Amtrak: http://www.amtrak.com/service-alerts-and-notices
LGA, JFK, EWR, PATH Train: http://www.paalerts.com/recent_pathalerts.aspx
AA: http://www.aa.com/i18n/travelInformation/travelAlerts.jsp
B6: http://www.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx
DL: http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/advisories.html
UA: http://www.united.com/CMS/en-US/travel/policy/Pages/FlightDelaysandCancellations.aspx
US: http://www.usairways.com/TravelCenter/Advisories.aspx/Advisories.aspx
Please see the following websites for the latest information:
MTA Buses, Subways, LIRR, Metro-North, Bridges & Tunnels: http://alert.mta.info/
Amtrak: http://www.amtrak.com/service-alerts-and-notices
LGA, JFK, EWR, PATH Train: http://www.paalerts.com/recent_pathalerts.aspx
AA: http://www.aa.com/i18n/travelInformation/travelAlerts.jsp
B6: http://www.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx
DL: http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/advisories.html
UA: http://www.united.com/CMS/en-US/travel/policy/Pages/FlightDelaysandCancellations.aspx
US: http://www.usairways.com/TravelCenter/Advisories.aspx/Advisories.aspx
Blizzard tomorrow - Winter Storm Juno, Jan 2015
Jan 26, 2015, 3:18 pm
#16
Join Date: May 2008
Location: NYC
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The 20-30 forecast comes from the official Blizzard Warning issued by the National Weather Service.
I will c&p only a snippet as they insist on issuing their warnings in all caps
I will c&p only a snippet as they insist on issuing their warnings in all caps
... BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...
* LOCATIONS... NEW HAVEN... MIDDLESEX... NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON... EASTERN BERGEN... EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)... BRONX... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... KINGS (BROOKLYN)... SUFFOLK... QUEENS AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW... WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS... 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT.
* LOCATIONS... NEW HAVEN... MIDDLESEX... NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON... EASTERN BERGEN... EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)... BRONX... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... KINGS (BROOKLYN)... SUFFOLK... QUEENS AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW... WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS... 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT.
Jan 26, 2015, 6:34 pm
#17
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Join Date: Mar 2001
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The city is advertising PlowNYC that supposedly provides real-time information via map of how recently your block was plowed. http://maps.nyc.gov/snow/#
Jan 27, 2015, 7:08 am
#19
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: On the road, 24/7/365
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From Manhattan: The blizzard that fizzled. Less snow on the ground this morning than at 5:00PM yesterday, and virtually none falling. MTA and PATH just started running again. My company called off its snow day, so everyone's expected in the office, perhaps a bit late due to public transport, but expected in the office.
Jan 27, 2015, 7:26 am
#20
Join Date: Aug 2010
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Phew, we got lucky - forecasters missed it ?? - mother nature gave the Big Apple a break, this time; or, a matrix of all of the above. Regardless, time to hit the outdoor fitness center = snowblower, shovel time to clear the sidewalk & driveway, etc. Was going to sleep late but emergency notification alerts went off, turned out to be a "routine" quarterly drill only - looked outside & realized by looking at various emails and news that NYC travel ban has been "officially" lifted.
Overnight, DOS plows did our secondary side street several times, so it's "passable" once we digged out the path, the corner for the primary roads are always a challenge.
JFK & LGA still showing mostly cancelled flights today, a handful of scheduled ones - one of nephew's TPAC non-stop flight typically arriving at noon already cancelled @PEK & will be flying tomorrow instead.
Overnight, DOS plows did our secondary side street several times, so it's "passable" once we digged out the path, the corner for the primary roads are always a challenge.
JFK & LGA still showing mostly cancelled flights today, a handful of scheduled ones - one of nephew's TPAC non-stop flight typically arriving at noon already cancelled @PEK & will be flying tomorrow instead.
Jan 27, 2015, 8:03 am
#21
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5"-7" of snow. The radar kept showing the massive storm very much east of the city with Suffolk County and eastern New England as its targets. The weather forecasters kept predicting that the storm would curve to the left overnight "like a comma" over NYC. That didn't happen. Suffolk County was the only area that was hammered in NYS.
Coffee shops and other restaurants were all open as were grocery stores at 7am. Didn't think there would be a lack of food that anyone really needed to run to the store and wait on lines to buy loaves of bread and gallons of milk. Maybe batches of bread pudding will be on the menu for some. ^
NYC kids do get a rare snow day so I hope they have a blast!!
Coffee shops and other restaurants were all open as were grocery stores at 7am. Didn't think there would be a lack of food that anyone really needed to run to the store and wait on lines to buy loaves of bread and gallons of milk. Maybe batches of bread pudding will be on the menu for some. ^
NYC kids do get a rare snow day so I hope they have a blast!!
Jan 27, 2015, 5:15 pm
#22
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For the weather nerds:
How Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard Forecast
Throughout most the day on Monday, the Weather Channel was forecasting 12 to 18 inches for New York City, while the National Weather Service insisted a record-breaker was possible. By nightfall the Weather Channel had scaled back its forecast even further, calling for 8 to 12 inches. And that’s exactly what fell. As late as 5 p.m. Monday, the National Weather Service was still talking about top-end scenarios of up to 3 feet in the Bronx.
These days, meteorologists rely heavily on computer weather models for everything from temperature forecasts to the tracks of hurricanes to snowstorms. Usually, they’re pretty good. But the problem is, they frequently disagree—and when that happens, you need to quickly assess what information to use and what to toss. Which is where the humans come in.
...
As best I can piece together, the Weather Channel’s method for forecasting storms like this is not to throw out any model information, no matter how off-base it may seem at the time. And for this storm, the potential spread of model forecast placement of the most intense snow band was exceptionally large for the New York City area. This is a perfect situation where probabilistic forecasts are useful. Instead of banking on one or two specific models like the NWS did (and which turned out to be the wrong ones), the Weather Channel chose to blend the models and weight them a little more equally.
...
How Everyone but the Weather Channel Botched the NYC Blizzard Forecast
Throughout most the day on Monday, the Weather Channel was forecasting 12 to 18 inches for New York City, while the National Weather Service insisted a record-breaker was possible. By nightfall the Weather Channel had scaled back its forecast even further, calling for 8 to 12 inches. And that’s exactly what fell. As late as 5 p.m. Monday, the National Weather Service was still talking about top-end scenarios of up to 3 feet in the Bronx.
These days, meteorologists rely heavily on computer weather models for everything from temperature forecasts to the tracks of hurricanes to snowstorms. Usually, they’re pretty good. But the problem is, they frequently disagree—and when that happens, you need to quickly assess what information to use and what to toss. Which is where the humans come in.
...
As best I can piece together, the Weather Channel’s method for forecasting storms like this is not to throw out any model information, no matter how off-base it may seem at the time. And for this storm, the potential spread of model forecast placement of the most intense snow band was exceptionally large for the New York City area. This is a perfect situation where probabilistic forecasts are useful. Instead of banking on one or two specific models like the NWS did (and which turned out to be the wrong ones), the Weather Channel chose to blend the models and weight them a little more equally.
...
Jan 27, 2015, 9:24 pm
#23
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: NYC/Northern NJ
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The same BS happened on the false snowstorm two years ago - shut down systems/transport only to have a rain event.
I am not a weather forecaster but we must halt the hysteria as I do recall one prediction model constantly stated less than 10 inches for every local west of JFK. It was ignored but accurate and would've saved business and airlines millions on lost revenue.
I am not a weather forecaster but we must halt the hysteria as I do recall one prediction model constantly stated less than 10 inches for every local west of JFK. It was ignored but accurate and would've saved business and airlines millions on lost revenue.
Jan 28, 2015, 8:01 am
#24
Join Date: May 2004
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The same BS happened on the false snowstorm two years ago - shut down systems/transport only to have a rain event.
I am not a weather forecaster but we must halt the hysteria as I do recall one prediction model constantly stated less than 10 inches for every local west of JFK. It was ignored but accurate and would've saved business and airlines millions on lost revenue.
I am not a weather forecaster but we must halt the hysteria as I do recall one prediction model constantly stated less than 10 inches for every local west of JFK. It was ignored but accurate and would've saved business and airlines millions on lost revenue.
This happened in DC in 1983. DC was right at the rain/snow line. They predicted mostly rain. In this type of storm, the snow is heaviest at the rain/snow line. So, the forecasters were playing catch-up the entire day. They started predicting 0-2 inches. When there were four inches on the ground, they upped it to 2-4 inches when there were 8 inches on the ground, they upped it to 3-6 inches, etc. By the time the storm was over there had been thundersnows and 21 inches of snow in about a 12 hour period in what was supposed to be a rain event. 20 miles east of DC got no snow at all.
Despite all the naysayers, this was a historic storm. It just tracked slightly too far east to seriously affect Philadelphia and New York. Predicting US east coast weather will always be a bit of a crap shoot, because of the complex nature of the major storm systems in our area. They so often involve the merging of two systems, one from the south and one from the west, with the southern storm bringing the water, the western storm bringing the cold, and the merge creating the strengthening and deepening of the storm. Since very slight differences can result in major differences in outcomes, it isn't surprising that they sometimes get it wrong.
The reason the Weather Channel got it right is simply that they update their statements constantly, unlike the NWS, and they took a bit of a chance that the one model which was predicting less snow, a model which doesn't have that great a track record, was in fact the correct one for this circumstance.
Jan 28, 2015, 8:25 am
#25
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We have to recognize that, even in 2015, predicting snowfall is not an exact science.
Adam Gopnik just posted a nice piece on newyorker.com in which he concludes:
Adam Gopnik just posted a nice piece on newyorker.com in which he concludes:
Not seeing the snowstorm coming costs more socially—or politically—than imagining more snow than nature intends to let fall. And it costs more because it should cost more. Being unprepared for a disaster is a lot more painful than being overprepared for an inconvenience. Looking out at the lovely kingdom of white in New York on Tuesday morning—“Snow comes from heaven, and brings us the peace of a better world,” a rabbinical student says in an Isaac Bashevis Singer story—it may be worth remembering that, while advance hysteria rarely appears wise, post-hoc regret feels a whole lot colder. It’s better to feel a little bit silly then be completely snowed under, or, for that matter, drowned in the oceans that may, in fact, rise.
Jan 28, 2015, 9:08 am
#26
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And of course Jon Stewart's take was more humorous:
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/nb...-erdammergung-
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/nb...-erdammergung-
Jan 28, 2015, 9:10 am
#27
Join Date: May 2004
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We have to recognize that, even in 2015, predicting snowfall is not an exact science.
Adam Gopnik just posted a nice piece on newyorker.com in which he concludes:
Adam Gopnik just posted a nice piece on newyorker.com in which he concludes:
Great point in this post. All we have to do is look back at Sandy, where despite the warning, NYC was underprepared.
Jan 28, 2015, 9:29 am
#28
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 8,498
The underprep for Sandy was due in large part to the relative non-event of Irene a year earlier. Let's hope our officials have learned from that lesson and don't let the non-event of Juno lead them to underprepare for the next major blizzard.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:49 am
#29
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ITA. Better to be overprepared for a storm that thankfully misses us than to underprepare for a "perfect storm" that hits us the way Sandy did.
Jan 29, 2015, 11:57 pm
#30
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I don't recall under prediction for Sandy.
airports, roads, transportation was shut down the night before it hit. The post Sandy issues were no gas, no electricity and flooding of subways and rail. I believe that is simply due or similar to New Orleans if it hasn't happened in decades no one is around to indicate ramifications on electric gas pumps, salt on Path signal system, etc. Etc.
airports, roads, transportation was shut down the night before it hit. The post Sandy issues were no gas, no electricity and flooding of subways and rail. I believe that is simply due or similar to New Orleans if it hasn't happened in decades no one is around to indicate ramifications on electric gas pumps, salt on Path signal system, etc. Etc.