bchips

For someone who has just made AA EXP via mileage running, I'm quite disheartened to see both Delta and United going to revenue based. If I believe all the scuttlebutt I read, it seems AA is likely right behind. If that happens, will mileage running be worth it any more?

While status can be earned for $4k-$5k, the 200,000 RDM for an AA elite helps to offset that somewhat. For that same $4k under the new UA revenue scheme, we'd only earn about 45,000 RDM. Can't imagine top tier elite status and 45k points is going to be worth it for most people.

Am I looking at this correctly? Is the end near?

mikelat

MRs will still be around for those who are close to an Elite Level based on other travel. Say someone is travelling on UA and accumulate 95k EQM with no problem hitting 1K Qualifying Dollars. A cheap 5k R/T could be worth it to get to 1K status.

Now, for those booking exclusively on cheap fares, the better way to earn miles will likely become credit cards and manufactured spending.

Keep in mind that no program yet has changed EQM to be based on spending. Only RDM are affected.

When AA changes, I'd suspect folks won't get to EXP on $5-6k spend without some sort of Citi credit card spend waiver. They'll likely have a $10k min spend on AA to get EXP.

For me, when they go to that, I'm out of the EXP game. Just hoping to hit LT Plat before that happens and that LT Plat stays with some sort of value.

bchips

I agree. But even with a spend waiver, the RDMs earned if AA adopts the UA/DL revenue scheme would be roughly 75% less than it is now (assuming 11x per $). It's easy for me to justify spending $5k in order to get EXP status, 8 SWUs, and have earned enough miles for 2 biz seats to Europe (which at $6k each, I'd be essentially getting a 50% discount for my $5k in MR spending).

ESpen36

Wirelessly posted (Apple iPhone: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 7_1_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/537.51.2 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/7.0 Mobile/11D201 Safari/9537.53)

Me too. $5k is well worth it for the 8 eVIPs, especially when each one can be worth up to $2500 if used to the absolute max. And the 200k RDMs are great as well for international partner trips.

$10k would be harder to justify. I'm just a teacher who travels as a hobby. I don't make anywhere close to the income of most business-type FTers!

SFflyer123

I don't think it's completely dead. The EQM's/PQMs still need miles, so there is some reason to do a mileage run. I personally easily spend way more than the $10K/year because 95% of my flights are paid for by other people, so that isn't the issue. But I do sometimes worry if I'm close enough on the EQMs, so I can see how Milage runs can still be useful.

cesco.g

Topping off an account to reach MM (or higher status) might also be a reason to rake in a few MRs.

mikelat

I'm a pure leisure EXP as well. I'm just saying that if AA chooses to not do a waiver for EXP (similar to how UA apparently has no waiver for 1k), then I probably am out of the game. I can't see spending >50% more than I do in a year now just to keep up status. The value of the benefits is factored in to me spending what I do now and pretty well maximized. Changing the cost will change the cost/benefit analysis and likely having me drop out.

But, for the next year or so, I'll still be racking up what I can in advance of any changes

bchips

Excluding any spend requirements, if AA were to go from 100% bonus RDMs to 11pts/$ like the others... Would that end the game for other leisure MRs?

cova

It would for me. I would just go back to UA (with LT 1K) and fly only when I need to. And likely pay more to perhaps take advantage of UA's dynamic F pricing.

itsme

Pardon my ignorance, but have rarely purchased F in the past. What's "UA's dynamic F pricing," a chance to get into F cheaper depending on when purchasing? (Is this about Z fares or the like?)

JetAway

An example, based on my own travel patterns, means a flight from IAD to SAT, which used to cost +/- $1,300 in First can now be had for as little as $650 or so, depending on date, day, time and connections. The difference between "First Cabin" and the lowest available coach fare is now sometimes $200 or less.

itsme

How and when did UA whack "first cabin" fares on any routes that sharply, and what other routes might better serve for MRing purposes?

cova

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...ff-smisek.html

Check out the UA forum above.

June 2014 Comments Attributed to UA CEO Jeff Smisek


As quoted by Ben Levisohn in Barron's today:


"The second initiative is aimed at improving revenue via changes to revenue management techniques/policies by restructuring fares in its domestic and Latin network to drive a higher paid load factor in business/first class cabins and enhancing ancillary revenue opportunities by tailoring offers to customers and introducing more dynamic pricing."

JetAway

I found some even lower on the same route for late July-$588 for First Cabin and $430 for cheapest Coach. My limited recent experience with these fares (and it may vary or change) is that I received a 150% EQM fare bonus as well as a comfy seat and meagre snack.

GUWonder

Sounds more like a status run than a mileage run. So far, mileage runs and status runs were pretty much a package -- not so much in the future.