carsnoceans

Given the recent devaluations, I have been keeping myself in burn mode but struggling to find good redemptions with Marriott.

Going to SF in Nov. and staying at JW Union Sq:
Points - 40,000
Rate/day - $269
LNF (success) - $195
Effectively bringing it down .8cents to .5cent. Not that .8 cent/pt was a gret value to start.

Going to AMS in Dec
Points - 40,000
Rate/day - $250
Another bad redemption...

Not sure what next wave of devaluations is going to bring forth. I can't even get a 1 cent value out of these points at current rates! Should I just stick with burn mode and use the points or keep hoping for better redemptions rates?

VickiSoCal

Are you trying to always stay 5 days if possible?

carsnoceans

Vicki, 5-7 nights are not possible for every trip. Even then, fifth free nite only helps by 20%. For a redemption value of .7cents, it gets bumped bumped up to .84cents. Still not very good.

I know you are a big Marriott advocate and I like them too. They treat their PLT better than SPG (not in terms of upgrades but service) and are lot more consistent. However from a loyalty program POV, they are just down right sucky!! Between my 5 trips this year, I haven't had ONE good oppotunity where Marriott property presented a good redemption value! Let alone, comparing it with Hyatt/SPG properties around.

All that being said - how do Marriott loyalists speculate the next round of devaluations? I fear that I maybe holding the value of this currency at a level that might not exist anymore.

SkiAdcock

$250 US is not the norm for this property. Looking between now & the end of the year rates range from 188E-429E. On NYE the rate is 329E, which is approximately $417. In fairness, other night besides NYE are less; December is a slow month for a lot of properties. I traditionally see rates at this property in the 249E (315US) range.

BTW - if you want good redemption value, look at London or Moscow properties given the exchange rate

FWIW - I don't do burn mode for the sake of burning. I book trips because I want to go somewhere. If a property is dirt cheap then I might pay for it. But if it's not (or I don't have the funds) then I'll use points. I've never done calculations on points/cents (realize I'm the minority on that).

Cheers.

pinniped

That's a great rate for SF, and I think everybody knows Marriott categories are overvalued in a few big cities, including SF. And this isn't a one-night award program at all.

You've hand-picked the worst possible use of MR points. Anybody can do that.

Last week, that same hotel was $599/nt. I was holding a booking for the Courtyard in Oakland ($359/nt. - cheapest on-BART Marriott property anywhere) until I canceled and went non-Marriott.

If I were you, I'd just enjoy the excellent rate.

Saturday night, I'm using an award to stay at a Marriott in Lincoln, NE. Would be $189+tax, but only a Cat 4 hotel. So right there is greater than 1 cent per point, and that's still not a spectacular use of points.

(I'll admit that I'm using a near-expiry Megabonus cert. If it were 20,000 real points, I'd probably book a different hotel.)

This program is built around the Travel Packages. It rewards the guest who is in it for the long-haul, mainly 330,000 points and up. For someone who enjoys the one- and two-nighters, Starwood is probably a better program with their C&P awards.

planemechanic

This raises a point I have been wondering about. What is a "good" value that I should look for on a cents per point scale? How is it different when using points for rooms vs. points to purchase merchandise? I see I can purchase a Mac laptop, worth about $2500 for 600,000 points. so that is 240 points to the dollar. That sounds bad, based on the above.

So what is a "good" value?

Thanks,

pinniped

Points for merchandise is always a bad value per point...same holds true for any miles/points program that offers to book or buy stuff outside their ecosystem for you. That option is mainly there for people who have millions of points and stay in so many hotels already that a new computer or set of golf clubs is simply more appealing that more hotel stays.

I tend to value my MR points at about 1.25 cents each. That's loosely based on valuing FF miles at 1.5 to 2 cents each and using my Marriott points for Travel Packages.

The two constraints are:
(a) Earning enough MR points on a regular basis to redeem Travel Packages before too much category creep slips in and
(b) Wanting to spend one full week (or close to it) in some non-resort Marriott hotel somewhere.

(b) is sometimes a bigger constraint than (a) for me.

VickiSoCal

We've never done travel packages. The husband earns AA miles faster than we can find flights to redeem them on(getting harder and harder). Like Sharon, we pick where we want to go on vacation and find the nicest Marriott we can afford with the points we have. We are staying at the Amsterdam and Ghent Marriotts (2 rooms at each) during Easter week. I haven't calculated the cash equivalents but I am betting it is good. With kids we have to travel during school vacations, and that tends to be when rooms are pricey. Quite frankly, we are not wealthy people and MR has allowed us to stay at many properties we normally would not pay cash for, it just wouldn't be an option. Zurich, London, Times Square, we'd be scrounging around for a apartment or low budget hotel. Instead, we are booking 2 rooms at flagship properties. I can't complain too much.

planemechanic

Thanks.

carsnoceans

Thanks. Makes me happy that I snagged a good rate at a JW!

I suppose you are right about travel packages but I can't remember the last time, I spent 7 days on vacation (in one city nonetheless). So I have been keeping a big stash of points for the perfect 7-day redemption alongwith miles. But the top properties keep on getting devaluated...

Same here Sharon. It's limited stock since my work travel patterns have changed and earning is capped but I haven't been able to make good redemptions in a while. Just end up paying cash for stays...

PS- point taken on the AMS property. I am surprised to see it go for that cheap in peak vacation period.

keeton

While, personally, I find calculating redemption cpp for every award stay somewhat silly, don't forget that a paid stay (particularly in the US) have rather hefty taxes added on to them so your "$250" room can easily become a "$285" (or more) room after taxes which would affect the total calculation and make the points burning somewhat less painful.

SkiAdcock

Christmas time isn't really peak vacation time though. You won't see it that cheap in the summer

Cheers.

aaupgrade

+1

With the exception of Ski ad Beach resorts, Christmas is slow at many hotels. I travel cross country Dec 26-28 and find rates from $71-$110, whereas on my return in April (weekend stays) $110-$200.

About SFO, my guess is the rate provided by the OP is probably a weekend or holiday period (think Thanksgiving night) rate. Undoubtedly a completely different story for business weeknight rates.

Great places to use points
Paris
London
Venice
Rome
Moscow
Vail and Park City Resorts (during Xmas, NY and peak ski season mid-Feb through end of March) Note: Sundance Film festival period is blacked out as special event.
Hong Kong
Sydney (especially over new years ($500-600 AUD/night, and booked real early for that)
NYC
San Francisco

Note if it's just for a weekend stay, you can probably do better with cash in most of the above locations.

nacho

Hong Kong is a hit and miss - quite often you can get LNF in the higher end properties - which makes the 40k/night at JW not worth the 40K.

My best redemption so far:
DC area (VA) during mid week - 20K pt (cat 4 cert) for a full service hotel that worth $249+ tax

It was during Cherry Blossom Festival and I was so glad that I'm able to use award nights. I tried my best to score LNF but it was impossible.

If you need a room during trade fair, then the redemption value is super awesome. A FTer got a room in DUS Ren that was around 400e and he got it for 20k points!

joshua362

Like clockwork every year, most urban, resort and other desired property redemptions will rise by 5000 points. All of them, most definitely, 5000 points every other year. That's a cumulative 15%-25% annual loss in my book.

I stayed 5 nights here at 35,000 just last year and wasn't impressed. But it was over New Years and rooms were $400+.

They question I ask is am I likely to use those 40,000 somewhere else more expensive / glamorous in the near future, or for a travel package, or are they likely to sit around and devalue again.

As someone above pointed out, in cash you might be subject to 20%+ in taxes and fees which makes your redemption calculation a bit better.

But 40,000 for $195 (plus taxes) is tough to swallow!