Alex909

These are exciting days for aviation buffs (http://flyingbettertogether.com)

Possible impacts on HA. Is this going to end the air war that is raging after VirginA entered the Hawaii market with $140 one way flights? More importantly, is this going to drive HAL into a merger with JetBlue? The HA stock is up 4% today, so investors seem to be entertaining some of these possibilities.

formeraa

I really don't get the HA and B6 merger talk. There is no particular reason for them to get together.

WrightHI

Presumably HA will lose its current VX codeshares after the merger closes, and adding flights to HI from LAX and SFO will be a significant upgrade to AS's HI coverage. VX would have been an also-ran on those crowded markets; AS becomes a small player there but also the only carrier other than HA with NS service to all of the major west coast airports.

One of AS's investor slides on the deal had a pie chart with AS, VX, HA, and B6 broken out as a set of smaller carriers with low costs and product differentiation from the network carriers. AS management may have more ideas about consolidation within that group to compete more strongly. If HA is the next target, B6 wouldn't necessarily be the acquirer.

Alex909

Yes, that slide is interesting. I always thought there were only two real segments outside the majors, but Alaska management seems to think there are three or possibly more. In my own purchasing choices, I never distinguished between ultra low cost and low cost, but I can see why you would want to. (I recently flew with Peach, an ultra low cost, and learned a painful lesson how these carriers make money off baggage fees by making carry on super unreasonably tight. Less than 10kg for international is crazy IMO

AS has just gotten even more attractive for frequent mainland Hawaii flyers now that it has LAX and SFO direct service. I wonder if that will finally motivate HA management to invest more into their Hawaiian miles program by relaxing their unreasonably high change fees (Alaska charges none for MVG Golds) and premium seat policies (Alaska lets MVPs pick premium seats at time of booking and will upgrade you automatically into first if they have availability). At least Hawaiian could offer one of those two key benefits to, say, their 75k Pualani Platinums. (Btw -- Hawaiian miles customer service seems to have gotten better recently when trying to redeem Plat certificates, lounge access etc. Maybe this is the beginning of something good.)

WrightHI

I would love to see HA do some of those things and compete harder for local business to the mainland, but they seem to have drunk their own koolaid about being a "destination carrier" and decided that they don't care about owning their home market (other than interisland). And maybe they sell enough seats and credit cards to people who just want to buy local that they're right.

3Cforme

Has just gotten better?

Might get better within a year or two is more like it, after the financial transaction closes, and after AS outlines VX-operated mileage earning and redemption (and the termination of the VX FF plan as members are rolled into AS MVP.

Until then HA would be chasing phantoms - changing its plan to meet competition which isn't defined.

Alex909

Purely from a logical standpoint, you are correct.

But I am not sure if we consumers act entirely data driven. Psychology matters. My sense is that many frequent flyers are simple fed up with some of the Hawaiian Miles policies around ticket changes, seat upgrades etc. Once Alaska Air will have solidified into an even stronger competitor in a year or so, it will be harder to win us back. Many of us may be securely locked into MVP Gold by then.

beckoa

Will be interesting as AS becomes quite the juggernaut with VX's existing and upcoming Hawaii lift.

And with the 737MAX coming soon...perhaps its range will allow AS to connect Hawaii to the 9th island?

FBWFTW

My friends at B6 say that HA is now the talk of the town as it relates to mergers... And that was confirmed by another long time employee at the gate about 2900 miles away from where my friends work. The sentiment seems to be "do we HAVE to?" And that western Europe should be the first goal for B6 but again that's just scuttlebutt from folks in all different areas of B6.

FBWFTW

Flying across the pacific in a 737... Not for me thanks ;-p
Just hoping VX will continue to be the quality product it has always been and that AS will recognize that and run it as such...

747FC

Note to Jet Blue: If you are seeking a merger partner, pick one that has a fleet of AirBuses, particularly the kind that you fly: AB320 series...

Note to Hawaiian: Didn't you just buy a bunch of AB320 series...

FBWFTW

To add to your two notes here-
I've heard rumors that JetBlue is potentially waiting to pounce on some A330's that are being returned from leases/the widebody "bubble". Now whether or not that'll involve HA-I don't know, but again I've heard Western Europe rumors(A320neo family first, then Widebodies) and also HA merger rumors(which started IMMEDIATELY after the AS/VX deal was announced)

Kumulani

It would be quite weird for JetBlue to all of a sudden go from a primarily domestic East Coast based carrier to having a Hawaii hub with interisland and widebody Asia/Oceania flights. I get that there is very little route overlap, but I would think that Jetblue's priority would be more flights between the West Coast and other mainland destinations (which Hawaiian does not have) before expansion to Hawaii, as the latter doesn't really make sense without the former. Europe would also make more sense, especially since JFK T5 is now capable of handling international arrivals.

TheTakeOffRush

Thanks for explaining the [dis-]logic. Both seem like very nice airlines in their way. But maybe not the best suited for this [barely hypothetical] match. Too bad; no Mint transpac service. Hooray for HA flatbeds! *Coming Soon to a widebody near you.

HNLbasedFlyer

I doubt won't be doing any mileage program changes until they evaluate how the upcoming lie-flat seats sell - the planes are full right now, they don't need to attract high value flyers......

But, when lie-flat comes out - they need to recoup that considerable investment with higher F fares - and those higher F fares will likely make HA need more high value flyers who expect/demand a more robust mileage program.

But, don't expect changes unless those lie-flats aren't selling at premium prices that they desire. Only time will tell.