Frontier pricing is becoming quite strange
Aug 25, 2015, 9:22 pm
#1
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,422
Frontier pricing is becoming quite strange
I bought a Frontier ticket today for the first time in a couple years. I paid $15 to fly MIA-PHL. This is, of course, absurd. I think the last time I bought an airline ticket for $15 was with SkyBus. I never got to fly that one, though: they went out of business before my travel date.
I'm starting to wonder what exactly F9's business plan is here. Offer insanely low fares to attract attention, and hope to sell the $15 customers lots of ancillary services? Um. OK, but wouldn't it make more sense to just offer everyday (profitable) fares that people want to buy?
I've also noticed that the big boys have started going after Frontier with a vengeance. After a year of absolutely no junk domestic fares, we're seeing airlines like AA match (at least to some extent) F9's prices. This has got to be hurting F9 pretty badly, because nobody in their right mind would fly F9 (or Spirit, etc.) if you could fly a "normal" airline for about the same price.
It's certainly an interesting story. Honestly, I would normally bet on an F9 bankruptcy here (we've certainly seen this movie before), but I don't think that's possible given the very low price of oil and the general lack of competition in the domestic USA airline industry. Basically, it's impossible right now to run a money-losing USA airline. But Frontier sure seems to be trying.
I'm starting to wonder what exactly F9's business plan is here. Offer insanely low fares to attract attention, and hope to sell the $15 customers lots of ancillary services? Um. OK, but wouldn't it make more sense to just offer everyday (profitable) fares that people want to buy?
I've also noticed that the big boys have started going after Frontier with a vengeance. After a year of absolutely no junk domestic fares, we're seeing airlines like AA match (at least to some extent) F9's prices. This has got to be hurting F9 pretty badly, because nobody in their right mind would fly F9 (or Spirit, etc.) if you could fly a "normal" airline for about the same price.
It's certainly an interesting story. Honestly, I would normally bet on an F9 bankruptcy here (we've certainly seen this movie before), but I don't think that's possible given the very low price of oil and the general lack of competition in the domestic USA airline industry. Basically, it's impossible right now to run a money-losing USA airline. But Frontier sure seems to be trying.
Aug 25, 2015, 9:56 pm
#2
Join Date: May 2004
Location: HYI/AUS/SAT originally TTN/EWR/PHL
Programs: Southwest Rapid Rewards, Jetblue TrueBlue, American Advantage
Posts: 1,190
Yes, I have noticed that, in Early June I flew AA PHL-LAS for $178RT, it was a match of a Spirit fare. For awhile they ignored ULCCs but I think with oil being so low, they figure this is a good time to run them out.
Now about the fares, I see the $15 fares but they are only valid on most routes on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. There are going to be people who won't be able to travel both to and from their destination on those days. In the PHL-IAH market for SEP/OCT the other days are pricing out at around $59. But even $59 is still a bit low.
Now about the fares, I see the $15 fares but they are only valid on most routes on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. There are going to be people who won't be able to travel both to and from their destination on those days. In the PHL-IAH market for SEP/OCT the other days are pricing out at around $59. But even $59 is still a bit low.
Aug 26, 2015, 10:05 am
#3
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
Their pricing is strange, but it is also cheap.
I have noticed that sometimes the low fares are only one way, so one side of a round trip costs more, raising the total price, then of course are the fees.
These Tuesday Wednesday Fares sort of do the same thing. Who really would fly somewhere on Tuesday and return Wednesday? Its too early in the week for a Weekend getaway, so I suspect usually they sold one $15 fare and one at a higher price.
I have a half fast theory that Frontier has now completed all or most of the changes they intend to make to become a ULCC. They inflicted the pain on their existing customers all at once instead of stringing out the changes and the are now making a move in the market to establish themselves as a really really cheap airline.
I wonder if the strategy is to slowly back off these very low fares once they have established their reputation.
I find Spirit is now often not the lowest fare. Southwest continues to talk low fares but they are often not the lowest, even when you take actual bag fees into account. Yet many people believe one or the other is always cheapest.
I have noticed that sometimes the low fares are only one way, so one side of a round trip costs more, raising the total price, then of course are the fees.
These Tuesday Wednesday Fares sort of do the same thing. Who really would fly somewhere on Tuesday and return Wednesday? Its too early in the week for a Weekend getaway, so I suspect usually they sold one $15 fare and one at a higher price.
I have a half fast theory that Frontier has now completed all or most of the changes they intend to make to become a ULCC. They inflicted the pain on their existing customers all at once instead of stringing out the changes and the are now making a move in the market to establish themselves as a really really cheap airline.
I wonder if the strategy is to slowly back off these very low fares once they have established their reputation.
I find Spirit is now often not the lowest fare. Southwest continues to talk low fares but they are often not the lowest, even when you take actual bag fees into account. Yet many people believe one or the other is always cheapest.
Aug 26, 2015, 11:11 am
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,422
Their pricing is strange, but it is also cheap.
I have noticed that sometimes the low fares are only one way, so one side of a round trip costs more, raising the total price, then of course are the fees.
These Tuesday Wednesday Fares sort of do the same thing. Who really would fly somewhere on Tuesday and return Wednesday? Its too early in the week for a Weekend getaway, so I suspect usually they sold one $15 fare and one at a higher price.
I have a half fast theory that Frontier has now completed all or most of the changes they intend to make to become a ULCC. They inflicted the pain on their existing customers all at once instead of stringing out the changes and the are now making a move in the market to establish themselves as a really really cheap airline.
I wonder if the strategy is to slowly back off these very low fares once they have established their reputation.
I find Spirit is now often not the lowest fare. Southwest continues to talk low fares but they are often not the lowest, even when you take actual bag fees into account. Yet many people believe one or the other is always cheapest.
I have noticed that sometimes the low fares are only one way, so one side of a round trip costs more, raising the total price, then of course are the fees.
These Tuesday Wednesday Fares sort of do the same thing. Who really would fly somewhere on Tuesday and return Wednesday? Its too early in the week for a Weekend getaway, so I suspect usually they sold one $15 fare and one at a higher price.
I have a half fast theory that Frontier has now completed all or most of the changes they intend to make to become a ULCC. They inflicted the pain on their existing customers all at once instead of stringing out the changes and the are now making a move in the market to establish themselves as a really really cheap airline.
I wonder if the strategy is to slowly back off these very low fares once they have established their reputation.
I find Spirit is now often not the lowest fare. Southwest continues to talk low fares but they are often not the lowest, even when you take actual bag fees into account. Yet many people believe one or the other is always cheapest.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/airfar...164632601.html
In my case, I did buy a one-way $15 ticket on Frontier. I personally wouldn't give them even $59 for the return. I'll use Avios, or a crazy matching fare from a "better" airline.
Aug 26, 2015, 5:17 pm
#5
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
Aren't the $15 fares only for DenDeal club members? F9 might be trying to ramp up club membership at this point.
NK is also offering crazy low fares out of PHL, and it's getting fare matched.
And, fare matching is going to happen. If F9 wants to be in PHL over ILG, ABE or ACY, and likewise NK for having some routes at PHL over ACY, it's inevitable that both carriers are going to be fare matched at PHL.
However, the fare matching seems sporadic. For example, AA/US hasn't fare matched every flight of it's day on PHL-CLT against F9 but just a couple of flights. And the low fares from AA/US often happen on days that are different than F9. e.g. F9 starts with a very low fare. A bunch of customers buy up the lowest bucket of fares, eventually to a point where F9's fares are just modest. Then AA/US discounts fares on the same day. In some instances, AA's fares are lower than F9's. If there are 3-4 flights between F9 and AA with low fares, the two might be able to co-exist in the summer with that. By Fall, leisure demand will drop, but F9 is banking on Florida.
WN is fare matching ATL-PHL and MCO-PHL, but often it's last flight of the day reaching PHL after midnight.
AA/US seems more aggressive fare matching better timed flights. However, since AA/US has high change fees, many bookings might be speculative anyways where pax end up deciding not to take the flight if they can't make it by the time the flight runs.
NK is also offering crazy low fares out of PHL, and it's getting fare matched.
And, fare matching is going to happen. If F9 wants to be in PHL over ILG, ABE or ACY, and likewise NK for having some routes at PHL over ACY, it's inevitable that both carriers are going to be fare matched at PHL.
However, the fare matching seems sporadic. For example, AA/US hasn't fare matched every flight of it's day on PHL-CLT against F9 but just a couple of flights. And the low fares from AA/US often happen on days that are different than F9. e.g. F9 starts with a very low fare. A bunch of customers buy up the lowest bucket of fares, eventually to a point where F9's fares are just modest. Then AA/US discounts fares on the same day. In some instances, AA's fares are lower than F9's. If there are 3-4 flights between F9 and AA with low fares, the two might be able to co-exist in the summer with that. By Fall, leisure demand will drop, but F9 is banking on Florida.
WN is fare matching ATL-PHL and MCO-PHL, but often it's last flight of the day reaching PHL after midnight.
AA/US seems more aggressive fare matching better timed flights. However, since AA/US has high change fees, many bookings might be speculative anyways where pax end up deciding not to take the flight if they can't make it by the time the flight runs.
Last edited by rtalk25; Aug 26, 2015 at 5:35 pm
Aug 26, 2015, 9:25 pm
#6
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Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,422
For the current $15 fares, you don't need a membership -- just a code that's available on their website.
The WSJ has a piece about Frontier's latest strategy. I'd guess that 2015 will be less profitable for them than 2014, but with fuel so cheap, perhaps they can survive the competitive onslaught. That said, logic would suggest they'd do better flying routes that don't directly antagonize the Big Four.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-ch...oom-1440459879
The WSJ has a piece about Frontier's latest strategy. I'd guess that 2015 will be less profitable for them than 2014, but with fuel so cheap, perhaps they can survive the competitive onslaught. That said, logic would suggest they'd do better flying routes that don't directly antagonize the Big Four.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-ch...oom-1440459879
Aug 27, 2015, 8:00 am
#7
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
Even with the cost of "joining" the Discount Den, I saved money on an earlier $19 Fare.
As far as I can tell The only things Frontier charges for that most other carriers don't are carry on bags, soft drinks and snacks. Southwest is the exception not charging for bags.
As far as I can tell The only things Frontier charges for that most other carriers don't are carry on bags, soft drinks and snacks. Southwest is the exception not charging for bags.
Aug 27, 2015, 11:22 am
#8
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
F9 also just joined the SFO-LAS fray. That's up against high frequency WN from multiple airports, VX and B6 and the existing fare war, with three LCCs and UA. It's also running a LAX-MCO red-eye even though reports of it's slimline seats from members here indicate that's a combination for an uncomfortable flight. In the end, I don't think they care what others might think.
In terms of fare matching, some routes get fare matched while others don't.
PHL-ATL is a 5 carrier war, with fare matching. I can buy a Southwest fare next week for a nonstop just next week for a little over $100.
On BWI-ATL where NK is present, it's just three carriers. DL seems least concerned about ULCCs. WN is ignoring NK as well, and WN's walkup fares are quite expensive for the nonstops and even one-stops. If NK increases the service to 2x daily or if F9 moves it's ATL flight from IAD to BWI, the situation might change where WN might feel inclined to fare match. WN is actually adding back IAD-ATL at 2x daily interestingly enough.
Aug 27, 2015, 12:19 pm
#9
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 530
Aug 27, 2015, 1:01 pm
#10
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
Not exactly, the majors all have options to get a better or "Premium Seat" in some cases it's baked into the class of the ticket.
Delta has a Basic Economy with no seat assignment which is $15-20 less than their Main Cabin which does have limited seat assignment, better seats are available for purchase or if you have status..
American has assigned seating but you get more better options if you have Status, or pay more for Main Cabin Extra or a full fare ticket.
Southwest doesn't assign seats but you get a better selection by purchasing Business Select ticket, Early Boarding or a Upgrade at the Gate or by having status. All of the above give you a better place in the boarding order and a better chance to snag one of a few truly better seats. In fact I think Southwest oversells this option, since nothing is guaranteed but around 11% of their passengers buy Early Boarding.
They all monetize seat selection in some way.
I'm perfectly happy to pay Frontiers Low Fare and and addition $8 for a more or less guaranteed aisle seat in the back of the plane.
Delta has a Basic Economy with no seat assignment which is $15-20 less than their Main Cabin which does have limited seat assignment, better seats are available for purchase or if you have status..
American has assigned seating but you get more better options if you have Status, or pay more for Main Cabin Extra or a full fare ticket.
Southwest doesn't assign seats but you get a better selection by purchasing Business Select ticket, Early Boarding or a Upgrade at the Gate or by having status. All of the above give you a better place in the boarding order and a better chance to snag one of a few truly better seats. In fact I think Southwest oversells this option, since nothing is guaranteed but around 11% of their passengers buy Early Boarding.
They all monetize seat selection in some way.
I'm perfectly happy to pay Frontiers Low Fare and and addition $8 for a more or less guaranteed aisle seat in the back of the plane.
Aug 27, 2015, 4:19 pm
#11
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 530
Not exactly, the majors all have options to get a better or "Premium Seat" in some cases it's baked into the class of the ticket.
Delta has a Basic Economy with no seat assignment which is $15-20 less than their Main Cabin which does have limited seat assignment, better seats are available for purchase or if you have status..
American has assigned seating but you get more better options if you have Status, or pay more for Main Cabin Extra or a full fare ticket.
Southwest doesn't assign seats but you get a better selection by purchasing Business Select ticket, Early Boarding or a Upgrade at the Gate or by having status. All of the above give you a better place in the boarding order and a better chance to snag one of a few truly better seats. In fact I think Southwest oversells this option, since nothing is guaranteed but around 11% of their passengers buy Early Boarding.
They all monetize seat selection in some way.
I'm perfectly happy to pay Frontiers Low Fare and and addition $8 for a more or less guaranteed aisle seat in the back of the plane.
Delta has a Basic Economy with no seat assignment which is $15-20 less than their Main Cabin which does have limited seat assignment, better seats are available for purchase or if you have status..
American has assigned seating but you get more better options if you have Status, or pay more for Main Cabin Extra or a full fare ticket.
Southwest doesn't assign seats but you get a better selection by purchasing Business Select ticket, Early Boarding or a Upgrade at the Gate or by having status. All of the above give you a better place in the boarding order and a better chance to snag one of a few truly better seats. In fact I think Southwest oversells this option, since nothing is guaranteed but around 11% of their passengers buy Early Boarding.
They all monetize seat selection in some way.
I'm perfectly happy to pay Frontiers Low Fare and and addition $8 for a more or less guaranteed aisle seat in the back of the plane.
Aug 27, 2015, 7:34 pm
#12
Join Date: May 2004
Location: HYI/AUS/SAT originally TTN/EWR/PHL
Programs: Southwest Rapid Rewards, Jetblue TrueBlue, American Advantage
Posts: 1,190
So If I'm saving money in the end, it doesn't really matter to me if they charge me a cabin oxygen fee. `
Aug 28, 2015, 2:25 pm
#13
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 530
Well, yes and no. No, they don't give it a line item and its not an official fee. But yes you pay for it, its incorporated in the price of the fare which is usually higher (unless a major is matching a F9/NK fare), so your paying for it regardless. If you wish not to have to even think about what fees apply then you are welcome to pay the higher fare on the traditional carrier, but I am willing to put in the effort of knowing that they will have a seat fee, a carry-on fee, etc. My major complaint with F9 these days are the seats. I haven't personally sat in the seats but my brother was on a 3 1/2 hour flight and was disappointed in them. I hoping that the stretch seating is better according to the Frontier video on the new seats, stretch has lumbar support and additional padding.
So If I'm saving money in the end, it doesn't really matter to me if they charge me a cabin oxygen fee. `
So If I'm saving money in the end, it doesn't really matter to me if they charge me a cabin oxygen fee. `
Aug 28, 2015, 2:33 pm
#14
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,813
On my last AA flight I was unable to reserve a seat next to my wife. Eventually after much effort we were able to sit together. On Southwest if you have a low boarding number you may not be able to sit with your family.