iahphx

The two most predictable things in the Philly airline market is that service at ILG will fail and low fare airlines at PHL will fail when going head-to-head with US.

Frontier seems well on their way to be the next example with their poorly-conceived strategies. I would have expected better from them: this is no SkyBus or reincarnation of PeoplExpress. Honestly, it's embarrassing for them.

rtalk25

Frontier's fares from markets like CLE and TTN to MCO are higher than under $100.

I'm not sure why anyone would want to change planes in ATL to reach Florida when/if many nonstops are available. The hassle exists of changing gates and reboarding, possibility of more flight delays in ATL, in addition to lengthy overall travel times. It seems like a lot more inconvenience.

The connections in ATL were popular to reach places like Texas or Ohio where US pricing (on nonstops) was very high. e.g. It's still cheapest to fly PHL-ATL-CAK on AirTran (now Southwest) as the way to reach Cleveland as opposed to US, that charges very high on that nonstop.

But for Florida - It's just less favorable to connect in ATL for the family going to Disney with the small kids.

If Frontier's nonstops are inconvenient on one leg, the family or group of pax can now easily book Frontier on one-way (to save money) and US or Southwest on the return leg or vice-versa. Travel agencies used to support AirTran a lot for PHL flights and mix-matching carriers on return legs.

The Frontier decision for PHL expansion might be also because of the TTN based crew and it works in conjuction with Apple.

I'd think the crew could support TTN and PHL, now where PHL replaces ILG. While it will be competitive with US, I think Frontier can take on the challenge.

Spirit does take on the challenge and just added PHL-ORD (beginning in April) although it's unclear if Spirit and Frontier plan on just seasonal. Both will probably see if the market can support it more, but I doubt it.

The examples of these are mainly the low fare airlines attempting to flying business routes on multiple daily frequencies.

Phudnik

FL operated a PHL-MCO nonstop, and WN has four flights a day on that route.

This I don't understand at all, unless F9's goal is to drive WN out of PHL. There will be five airlines flying nonstop between PHL and ORD, and it's not as if there aren't choices on the PHL-Florida routes (which are more expensive than they used to be, but still not outrageous due in large part to WN's continued presence in the market).


B6 is still around, though I would guess they draw a lot from people based in BOS.

iahphx

Has the April end of Frontier's ILG service been discussed in another thread already? They claim they'll be back the following winter but, of course, we'll have to wait and see.

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...turn/19544625/

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...ghts/70049870/

This, of course, was inevitable due to their poor business strategy of flying a couple times of week to random destinations -- guaranteeing both pax confusion and terrible yields.

If ILG could ever work for a discount airline, it's probably on an ILG-MCO route with consistent service -- like 2x daily (maybe 1x on Tuesdays and Wednesdays). Not sure if that would work, but it might. And that could potentially give the airline a toe-hold upon which to expand.

rtalk25

It's been discussed. F9 will be offering PHL-MCO while it ceases ILG-MCO. So I'm not sure of the need for ILG-MCO with it. ILG has free parking and close to gate walk up, but PHL is more central to more pax, fares show up on 3rd party booking sites more visibly, and pax have more flexibility (fly US or WN one-way, fly F9 on-way , to save money if assuming at least one F9 flight has a departure time that is suitable).

TTN works largely as an EWR substitute and has the NJ crowd, so it's protected that PHL won't fully be a replacement strategy.

On a side note for South Jersey which is an overlap zone between ILG PHL TTN ACY (and some consider BWI and EWR for certain trips), Enterprise locations in South Jersey are permitting one way rentals from South Jersey branches to TTN without a drop charge, which is nice if one wants to fly out of TTN but maybe return via another airport if Frontier's schedule doesn't fully work for both legs. It's not being offered the other way, but still beneficial. Returning a rental car at TTN isn't so well setup however, just like the awkward return to airport experience. ILG has that better, but TTN has location.

bridge29

I know seat maps are technically not an indication, but perhaps prices are, and PHL-MCO doesn't look so hot. I've had a flight booked in early January for several weeks now and the price has only gone down and the seat map is barely 1/4th full (even the recent promo codes didn't seem to stimulate sales). The times are just pretty bad for most families. It would be one thing if they could charge a premium in PHL over markets like ILG and MDT, but that's not the case anymore. Disappointing they killed MDT and are reducing ILG over this.

As a side note, I do want ULCCs to compete in PHL. I just feel like this market is SO loyal to US Airways.

Also interesting, I'm flying MDT-DEN later today and tracking the flight noticed that it's actually the TTN based plane that does this route (as opposed to DEN based plane). I wonder if increasing the daily flights in TTN is one of the reasons for ending this route.

davywavy

I have no idea how PHL-MCO is booking, but the online seat maps are notoriously unreliable.

(i) they don't show third party bookings.

(ii) many people don't self-select when they book, in order to save a few bucks.

(iii) Frontier sometimes deliberately fudges them in order to throw the competition off the scent.

On LGA-MIA there are days that are shown as "sold out" - they can't be booked - but the seat maps for those flights show seats available.

rtalk25

Does anyone know if Frontier is still intent on flying PHL-ATL/CLT/ORD beginning in the Spring?

With the published schedule out of TTN with those routes daily, it seems like PHL to those markets could partially duplicative, and overextended especially with Spirit on PHL-ORD also. CLT maybe somewhat driveable for a summer drive to visit relatives or do whatever in North Carolina, and not sure if two full mainline aircraft of low fares is really sustainable daily and US might price match.

I know Frontier states these announcements but a few times it doesn't pan through, and Spirit launched PHL-ORD right after Frontier's announcement of it affecting viability. One was an article with a Frontier rep stating that it would likely resume ILG-MDW this summer. It's not specific to Frontier, as even JetBlue announced it would fly out of ALB airport and that didn't pan out.

As far as ILG, some of the MCO fares are quite high this week and forward. Maybe it should have kept ILG with MCO, while offering PHL with MIA and ATL, and TPA either at ILG or PHL.

Atleast out of PHL for MCO, I think Frontier will have to be cheaper in price than US Air and Southwest, and out of PHL there is no close to gate walk up or free parking benefit for families that ILG had. MCO seems more family oriented, and pax traveling down to Disney or Universal are likely carrying on bags. I don't know if a price sensitive market to that exists. Surely, AirTran carried some pax before but it likely had a FF base that Frontier doesn't really have or want. It also flew on smaller less capacity filled planes.

Southwest lacks a steady FLL service year-round, so Frontier on MIA-PHL somewhat is the only competitor to US/AA atleast during the summer.

As far as MDT-MCO, I'm not sure the reason why Frontier is ceding it to Allegiant. Factors might be BWI proximity and US being price-competitive at MDT.

US is price competitive on MDT-CLT-MCO with fares as low as $97 coach one-way. It would require making the kids get up and change planes, but US offers a carry-on for no charge, and some FF might be getting a free checked bag also.

iahphx

As bad as their business plan out of ILG was, the new service out of PHL is worse. I can't believe that Bill Franke is giving this management team money to burn. US will eat them alive. Do they not understand the concept of yields? You can't offer obscure, infrequent, inferior service and attack a hub carrier. US will just offer some cheap seats at Frontier's 1x flight times (not even 7 days) and destroy whatever lackluster yields Frontier is going to achieve.

PHL is a killing ground for low fare airlines. Even Southwest got crushed: with good frequencies and a decent product. The only hope is that fuel is so much cheaper now that -- with a miracle -- Frontier can cover its costs. I doubt it: I'd give them 50 to 1 odds. This service will never see 2016.

rtalk25

I think the PHL-MIA service will do well. Fares seem to be high, and F9 remains the only carrier competing against US/AA directly out of PHL during spring, summer and presumably early Fall. I think PHL-ATL (previously announced) can do well with more low fare stimulation.

I'm surprised there is no announcement of a summer seasonal PHL-DEN to be offered, even though DEN is going through a de-hub. LGA-DEN returns seasonally.

While F9 seems to be just wanting to give Florida to PHL area pax esp. MCO, the IAD/DCA market has DEN and west bound connections, and an IAD-LAS nonstop. This is perhaps a good alternative for those looking to use up the bonus FF miles from the credit card that was pitched so extensively.

I don't expect PHL-LAS on F9 as that might be low fare stimulated by NK and WN price-matching here and down at BWI. But, maybe lower fares on PHL-PHX can be stimulated from F9? PHL-LAX would be great but some have advised on the stage length being unfavorable.

F9 has cut DEN-LAX drastically down that it likely can fit in more point to point flights ex LAX with the gate it has there.

iahphx

For their employees' sake, rtalk, I hope you're right. I had high hopes for Frontier when Franke bought them, but they now seem to be an airline in search of a business. A sure-fire recipe for bankruptcy. Fortunately, you couldn't possibly come up with a better time to be running a USA airline than right now -- tight capacity, few competitors and much cheaper fuel -- so hopefully Frontier finds a niche before it goes belly up.

davywavy

None of any potential new summer flying has been announced yet - it's still a bit early. They've just made an addition to the winter schedule - ORD-RSW, 3 x weekly, just for Spring Break.

The booking extension is simply that - booking for the routes that are already known.

rtalk25

I think you have to look at the bigger picture. While PHL is still largely new again and MCO/TPA might shift back to ILG, I think there is more in store and probably adjusting that will happen.

I think the TTN, CLE and ORD focuses are shaping up well, as well as the point to point to South Florida this winter although they are using 3 airports (MIA, FLL and PBI) down there. I think IAD might change in size, but it has the 3 DCA-DEN slot pairs to be vested in the DC market.

With them being somewhat tolerant in being in multiple airports in the same market (South Florida, IAD/DCA come to mind) and somewhat tolerant going head to head on point to point routes against US and Southwest (PHL and PHX come to mind), and the closure of MDT, I wouldn't be surprised to see them assume a gate in BWI and maybe OAK (or SJC) for Bay Area, while still keeping the other airport presences, and see some point to point ex LAX and SNA.

As a side bar - I was looking at PHL-SFO nonstop fares this summer and there are very high because of the Virgin pull out. I wonder if a carrier (not necessarily Frontier, as maybe Spirit) would fly PHL-OAK if US Air would consider price-matching on that even though OAK is a different airport than SFO. Southwest will be running BWI-OAK next year, and JetBlue has JFK-OAK. US price matches Southwest on PHL-Chicago even though MDW is different than ORD, but I don't know if that applies to a ULCC to OAK as it's a different city also than SFO, and TTN isn't price matched to PHL.

Tanic

That would be an interesting dynamic going up against US hub to hub 6/7xday, and WN 1x day service. Obviously with many connecting pax going both directions, there would be around 2000 seats per day to have to defend existing service. Then again, Parker might not want to take on his former mentor.

iahphx

I'm sure Parker will pummel Frontier every chance he gets. They're an easy target, because they don't seem to have any staying power: make their lives difficult, and they leave ASAP.

Frontier is not a publicly traded company, which is probably good for them because the analysts would undoubtedly pound them mercilessly for not having a coherent business strategy. If 1x out of PHL is their best opportunity, it's going to be a difficult year for them. That said, it is such a fantastic time to be a USA airline right now that it's almost unimaginable to me how Frontier could lose money even if their business strategy is awful.