rtalk25

MCO seems to have more consistent to solid demand year round where as TPA, RSW and FLL have a more distinct high season and low season.

I've noticed Southwest discounting BWI-TPA. Many $75 fares in November. Perhaps, it's just trying to stimulate demand to fill seats during a low season but that might hurt ILG-TPA.

On the bright side for Frontier - I've noticed rental car companies aren't charging steep surcharges from renting from one Florida airport and returning to another. In fact, I saw a few days of Enterprise to rent from RSW return at MCO that are cheaper than just rent from MCO and return at MCO.

This permits ILG-MCO with TPA-ILG return, or RSW-ILG for next month, and vice versa nicely and gives ILG fliers more options when the service to either MCO or TPA isn't 5x weekly and greater.

It might be better just upping MCO frequency over keeping TPA, but MCO-ILG is likely from an MCO based plane, and TPA-ILG from another based plane (perhaps out of TPA) atleast while ILG loses a based plane. I kind of like the idea of more destinations anyways.

davywavy

Indigo is being ruthless with the winter schedule - if it doesn't make money in Jan/Feb don't fly it - partly because of the aircraft situation. It would have been easy enough for Frontier to cut ILG entirely and blame Indigo.

There is at least one more - slightly surprising - change. In August, the Apple Vacations schedule showed that Frontier wouldn't be operating the PHL routes (CUN/PUJ) and BWI-PUJ beyond November, and Frontier informed the staff that PHL and BWI would be closing.

But Apple has really had to tap its toes to find acceptable replacement airlines for the Airtran routes. It has had to go offshore for some - Icelandair and AeroMexico - and Xtra Airways has been the big winner among US airlines.

Until about ten days ago, they still had no-one scheduled for PHL or BWI and then suddenly the schedule changed. Xtra and Aeromexico have taken over all the BWI routes and Frontier is back flying PHL-CUN/PUJ at least until the middle of next year.

I don't know how they were able to persuade Frontier to do this - although I guess at IAD-CUN, which is now an Apple/Frontier route which it wasn't before.

I don't know if this will affect ILG in the Spring when all the aircraft are supposed to be back in service, but given the determination to increase aircraft utilisation, there may be a way to give the PHL aircraft some ILG work - or an ILG aircraft some of the PHL work.

It may depend on their success in finding (good condition) A320 w/sharklets at reasonable lease rates, I believe they are looking for more. So far they have taken two Airbus new-builds originally meant for other customers who dropped out at the last minute. They may - may - even have a handshake with Airbus for more. They don't come along all that often, although there are rumours - only rumors - of two more possibles.

They seem to be being completely opportunistic, both with aircraft and the winter schedule, at least until the Neo's start arriving and all the foundations of the new route map are apparent, so all-up I think it will be some time before we can really understand it all, although once the new seats are installed it may become clearer.

winstoda

I'm doing this next month. Needed to fly home on a Saturday and there's no MCO-ILG service. So I'm going home via TPA. No extra cost for the rental car as you mentioned. And not that much further from the mouse than MCO. Plus the empty TPA flight is cheaper anyway...

Jerseyguy

Yes, it is negatively affecting ILG but F9 has to be more careful when it schedules. They run ads about how F9 is a caring airline and "Low Fares Done Right" but when they cancel flights to improve their bottom line and therefore reservations of people with plans, a refund just doesn't cut it. When they end up spending more for a new ticket on another carrier or having to cancel the trip entirely people get angry and rightfully so.

Yes, Frontier needs to make profits, yes they need to install seats that will lower fuel burn but they shouldn't be doing it at the expense of the customer. Or atleast don't run ads touting low fares done right.

I generally like and defend Frontier but this is a place I have to disagree with them.

rtalk25

I agree too. I'd rather hear F9 automatically refunded all affected ILG customers and gave them a 10-20% discount promo code or something for the available TTN, DCA or IAD flight. Also, I'd think it would have known how ILG-MDW performance was since it flew it last year - so why schedule it past October if they knew it wasn't that much of a money maker after then from the previous year? ATL might be excusable since they didn't fly it the year before.

I mentioned DCA and IAD as F9 now has a presence there and it's not too far atleast for me for a low fare flight. The IAD fares from some markets like UST and ORD are low in some cases and worth checking out. $40 one-way from IAD-UST.

I haven't flown out of IAD since I lived in the MD/DC area, but it's just an extra hour past BWI when I sometimes go down there for a low fare flight. My guess is IAD-CLT and IAD-UST might get cut given the low fares that seem persistent that if it can't make money it might get cut, but IAD-MCO, TPA, FLL, ORD and ATL stay more permanent.

iahphx

Yeah, as an active airline investor, I was excited when Indigo bought Frontier. I thought they were going to do the obvious: create an Easyjet in the USA (a bit ironic, of course, because Easyjet was a "Southwest for Europe," before Southwest morphed into a higher cost airline).

So far, though, they seem more bent on being another Ryanair. Which is shame, because the USA already has one of those: Spirit. What we need is an Easyjet: a low price, efficient way to get from point-to-point with terms and conditions that seem reasonable and friendly. No BS "gotcha" fees, and treating customers right when things go wrong. I knew Frontier lost its way when it started charging for carry-ons (Easyjet has actually moved the other way over the years, increasing its free on-board allowance to cover normal rollaboards).

The jury remains out whether Frontier management is "good enough" to make money by just copying Spirit. I think "low fares done right" would be a better strategy, but so far it seems like mostly a hallow slogan and doesn't match the reality of what they're offering.

delawareguy

The News Journal has reluctantly acknowledged that MDW will come back.

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...turn/15712561/

winstoda

Noticed today that the MCO flight is a really late departure this winter on Thursday and Sundays - arrives at MCO 11:53pm. Hope this doesn't take a bite out of bookings. Not very attractive for families heading to the mouse, at least with little ones. Saw a post on disboards in which the poster swore to never fly F9 out of ILG again. Wonder if that will be a common reaction to 2 of the 4 days flights to MCO...

davywavy

I don't know why you would think that. It was publicly announced by CEO Bedford at Republic, that Frontier would be transformed into ULCC and William Franke, of Indigo, confirmed it.

And why would Indigo not want to be ULCC when they made so much money out of Spirit and similarly out of Ryanair - they were an early investor in Ryanair and William Franke was Chairman for of the airline for a time - and they were lead investors in Wizz Air - another ULCC.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...tra-lcc-169822

"Wizz Air: London share listing planned after three-fold profit increase for the ultra-LCC"

Whether they can repeat the trick remains to be seen, of course, but it's quite a track record.

iahphx

But America already has a low fare airline that sucks (Spirit). We don't really have a low fare airline that doesn't suck. Most places in the world do. Seems like a better niche to me. Most of the demographic that flies (upper middle class and above, biz travelers) won't fly Spirit. They would fly an Easyjet if it was offered. Seems like a decent business plan to me.

davywavy

It may be a better niche, who knows, but it isn't what's happening and anything nothing ever has been said that suggested it would happen.

It will be the airline Bill Franke wants it to be - it's his money.

lowfareair

With the PHL flights announced, I'm guessing ILG will be no more after the peak Florida season is over this spring. They are flying from PHL to every viable market that F9 was at in ILG, and the airport is struggling to maintain even a token amount of service as it is.

winstoda

Well, was nice while it lasted.

iahphx

Well, at least Frontier will do more good for Wilmington pax flying a "real schedule" out of PHL than they did with their 2x/weekly service out of ILG.

That said, this latest move seems equally bone-headed to me.

Why on earth would you take on US at PHL? Nobody -- and I mean nobody -- has succeeded with this strategy. US will go ballistic, and Frontier's RASMs will be terrible. I give them less than a year at Philly. In the meantime, everyone will get to book cheaper US seats in these markets: so bad for the airlines, but good for travelers. While it lasts.

rtalk25

I'm not sure that I agree. The routes that Frontier is adding is mainly Florida where Southwest competes as well.

I think Southwest will be impacted on PHL-Florida flying as well, especially on FLL and TPA service. Didn't Southwest cut PHL-FLL last August (early August) only to restore it again for this Winter? If it restored it again, the market was profitable during the Winter for another carrier besides US. Southwest has found the way to continue PHL-FLL flying even when other network needs are deficient, like it's inability to offer the BWI hub a nonstop to MSP and CVG.

I'm not sure about PHL-CLT and TTN-CLT co-existing well, although PHL-CLT on F9 is listed just for the Spring/Summer when demand might be higher.